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FollowingFederal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points: Market reaction and policy outlook
After the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) announced a 25 basis point increase in policy rates, the initial market reaction and economists 'assessments began to emerge. Affected by this decision, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose above 100, breaking this key threshold for the first time since August 13.
Although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, the latest dot-chart shows that monetary policy may keep interest rates high for longer than expected. Based on the Federal Reserve's new forecast, policymakers 'median expectations show that there will be one more rate hike in the rest of 2026, while interest rates will remain at 4.1% throughout 2027. The interest rate cut is expected to start in 2028, and the federal funds rate is expected to fall to the range of 3.50%-3.75% in 2029. Compared with the previous June forecast, it was only expected to raise interest rates once in 2026 and once in 2027. In addition, the Federal Reserve also raised its long-term federal funds rate forecast to 3.2% from 3.1%.
Dot chart reveals policy differences
Dot chart data shows that 18 of 19 policymakers provided their forecasts, while Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not release his personal interest rate forecast at this meeting, as he did at his June meeting. Of the 18 officials, 16 expect to raise interest rates at least once before the end of the year. However, members showed more obvious differences in their views on the prospects for 2027.
美联储的经济预测也显示出通胀方面的上调修正。央行将2026年的PCE通胀预测上调至3.7%，并预计未来几年通胀将逐步接近2%的目标水平。
专家观点：紧缩周期开启
针对此次决定，毕马威（KPMG）首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克（Diane Swonk）指出，部分行业——尤其是人工智能相关领域——的工资增长步伐已有所放缓。斯旺克认为，美联储的最新举措标志着更广泛紧缩过程的开始，她表示：“这是加息周期的起点。”她还提到，虽然她预计中性利率将会上升，但目前水平仍然较低。在肯定美国经济韧性的同时，这位经济学家补充道，这种韧性并未在社会各个层面均匀体现。
前美联储副主席理查德·克拉里达（Richard Clarida）指出，此次决定是全票通过的。他强调，以12比0的投票结果批准这25个基点的加息，传递出了重要的信号。
