以太坊价格可能反弹至5000美元：亚瑟·海耶斯

Arthur Hayes预测：以太坊一年内价格或翻倍至5,000美元

据Arthur Hayes预测，随着Robinhood利用以太坊构建其区块链网络，使得其他大型金融机构更容易采用该网络，以太坊的价格在大约一年内可能接近翻倍至5,000美元。

核心观点摘要

• Arthur Hayes指出，由于Robinhood在其金融区块链上构建于以太坊之上，以太坊有望在一年内达到5,000美元的目标价位。
• 若要从当前的约2,650美元上涨至Hayes的目标价，ETH需要实现近89%的涨幅。
• 自推出以来，Robinhood Chain使用ETH作为Gas费代币，并在去中心化交易所（DEX）中记录了数十亿美元的交易量。
• 上周连续五个交易日，美国现货以太坊ETF获得了近6.9亿美元的净流入。
• 目前以太坊质押量约为4,350万枚ETH，且验证者进入队列远大于退出队列。

机构采用的新叙事

根据媒体报道，Hayes在EastPoint: Seoul 2026大会上发表了上述预测。他指出，Robinhood选择以太坊作为其区块链背后的安全层，这可能是更广泛机构采用的潜在催化剂。

“Robinhood选择了以太坊作为其自有区块链的安全层，”Hayes表示，“Robinhood为以太坊开启了一种新的叙事。”

As Maelstrom's chief investment officer and co-founder of BitMEX, Hayes believes Robinhood's decision provides a benchmark for other large financial companies when considering using Ethereum for their own blockchain infrastructure. He said that these companies can now cite one of the world's largest retail financial platforms as a case study when internally promoting Ethereum-based builds. If this trend is recognized, Hayes expects the narrative surrounding Ethereum to improve, with Ether prices reaching about $5,000 within a year.

At the time of Hayes's comments, Ether was trading at about $2,650, which means a close to 89% increase would be needed to reach its target price.

Robinhood Chain puts Ethereum at the center of the network

Robinhood Chain provides Hayes with a practical case study showing how a large financial company can leverage Ethereum infrastructure to design products around traditional and digital assets. Robinhood launched the network's public mainnet on July 1, an Ethereum Layer 2 solution based on Arbitrum technology. The company has designed the chain specifically for financial services and tokenization of real-world assets, including stocks, exchange-traded funds, ETFs, and private assets.

According to Robinhood's documents, the network uses Ethereum Blob for data availability processing and uses ETH as a native Gas token. Its specification bridge connects Layer 2 directly to Ethereum, while withdrawals from the main network require a standard Arbitrum challenge period.

In the early stages of launch, a large number of ETH flowed into the network. Previous reports pointed out that in the first week of launch, the number of Ethers bridged exceeded US$70 million. Token Terminal said at the time that continued adoption could make the network an "important new source of ETH demand." At that time, daily active users had reached 194,000, Robinhood Chain held 46,748 ETH, and its total locked position value (TVL) subsequently exceeded the US$100 million mark.

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams said that most transactions on the network are denominated in ETH, describing Ether as its underlying trading pair, the highest-traded asset, and the Gas token.

Activities continue after the initial start-up period. By August, Robinhood Chain's cumulative decentralized exchange transaction volume had reached nearly US$9 billion. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said the brokerage has the potential to connect its 27 million customers to Ethereum-based financial services. Lee pointed out that Robinhood users who use ETH to pay transaction fees may allow more ordinary investors to access and recognize Ether as a form of currency.

Ethereum prices face US$2,800 resistance before moving towards US$5,000

Hayes set a US$5,000 target well above the level Ethereum recently tested. ETH rebounded from about $2,400 in mid-September, briefly touching around $2,800, but was then pushed back below $2,700 by sellers. On September 23, Ethereum's intraday high was close to $2,789, and then fell to a low of $2,648.

尽管遭遇抛售，该代币仍保持在几条长期移动平均线之上。当时，以太坊维持在4小时级别的50、100和200周期移动平均线之上，回调使得2,700美元重新成为买方需要收复的关键即时水平。

2,800美元区域仍是ETH尝试向3,000美元迈进前的主要障碍。一旦有效突破该区域，Ether距离Hayes的5,000美元目标仍将约有40%的差距。

ETF需求提供市场支撑

市场条件通过交易所交易基金的需求提供了一定支撑。数据显示，在9月21日至9月25日的五个交易日中，美国现货以太坊ETF录得6.898亿美元的净流入。

具体来看，周一流入2.7亿美元，周二流入1.622亿美元，周三流入1.045亿美元，周四流入6,610万美元，周五流入8,700万美元，使该产品连续五个交易日呈现正值。其中，BlackRock的ETHA占据了周总流入量的3.262亿美元，Fidelity的FETH获得1.741亿美元。BlackRock专注于质押的ETHB基金也吸收了4,750万美元。

这周的净流入逆转了前一周记录的约1.406亿美元的以太坊ETF流出量。

以太坊质押需求保持高位

While Ethereum prices remain below the $2,800 resistance level, its pledge market shows another source of demand for ETH. Verifier queue data on September 28 showed that approximately 1.61 million ETH were waiting to be pledged, while approximately 161,000 ETH were waiting to be withdrawn. Entering the queue is almost 10 times more than exiting the queue.

About 43.5 million ETH are pledged across the network, accounting for 35.66% of the supply, and there are 889,387 active verifiers. New validators face a waiting period of nearly 28 days, while validators seeking to withdraw have a waiting period of less than three days. Although a pledge would remove ETH from the immediate liquidity supply and commit it to Ethereum's proof-of-stake system, it does not in itself establish a future price direction.

Hayes 'prediction depends in part on whether Ethereum's institutional use goes beyond Robinhood. Robinhood describes its chain as a permission-free network designed for the tokenization of real-world assets, where stocks, ETFs and other financial instruments can be represented and traded.

Roninhood reported in July that its international capital clients had exceeded 1 million in the second quarter. When the company launched the Chain Mainnet, its tokenized stock products were available to qualified users in more than 120 countries around the world through Robinhood Wallet.

Since then, the Layer 2 has faced questions about the extent to which its economic activity ultimately benefits Ethereum itself. Data cited earlier this month showed that Robinhood Chain charged approximately $4.5 million in transaction fees on September 3, while the cost of releasing data and certification to Ethereum was estimated to be just $398. Bitquery statistics show that as of September 3, Robinhood Chain had a total of 597 million transactions with cumulative fees of approximately US$23 million, and ETH remains the network's native Gas token.