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Following
BTC Bitcoin (BTC) was stable at the opening of Wall Street on Thursday, as analysts pointed to signs of "stagflation" in the United States.
Key points:
Bitcoin remains below US$65,000 as Iran lowered market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz oil route.
US PMI data analysis believes that "stagflation" may become a future risk.
Bitfinex said that the lack of direction in BTC prices means that the market has not yet experienced a "real break."
Market data showed that BTC/USD hovered above US$64,000, down about 0.5% on the day, while the U.S. stock market opened flat.
One-hour chart of BTC/USD.
Iran cools market hopes for the Hormuz deal
Market expectations that Iran and Oman will reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz oil route have not caused much volatility-due to the lack of U.S. participation, international shipping can fully resume remains uncertain. "This understanding in itself does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened," Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazim Garibabadi said in an interview with Iran's Official News Agency (IRNA).
U.S. WTI crude oil was basically flat at US$76 a barrel on the day, after hitting a three-week low of US$74.30 the day before.
One-day chart of WTI crude oil CFDs.
As markets await more geopolitical signals, trading resource agency The Kobeissi Letter focuses on the latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services PMI and employment data. Data released on Wednesday showed that the divergence continued: the July PMI rose 0.1 points to 54.1, while the employment index fell 3.6 points to 47.4, the lowest since March.
The agency reported on X: "At the same time, the payment price index surged 2.6 points to 70.3, close to its highest level since October 2022. The payment price index has risen for more than two consecutive years, rising 16.9 points since March 2024. In other words, the economy is increasingly facing the dual pressure of rising prices and a weak labor market."
Kobeissi also added that based on comprehensive PMI data, the possibility of stagflation is "increasing."
U.S. service industry PMI data.
Analysts discuss solutions to Bitcoin price deadlock
As Bitcoin failed to break through the local range formed since early June, online analysis platform Glassnode said BTC/USD showed "boredom rather than surrender."
Glassnode pointed out in its latest analysis on Thursday that Bitcoin performed lackluster, while gold hit a six-week high and the S & P 500 index hit a record high.
It concluded: "In one sentence: This is a compressed, under-positioned market, left behind by global risk appetite, and bottom conditions are converging but not yet complete."
One-day chart of BTC/USD and the S & P 500 Index.
Previous reports have compared bear market trends and believed that history may repeat itself in 2026, and Bitcoin will slowly erode support and then fall to the next macro bottom of the cycle.
Echoing Glassnode's view, Bitfinex Research, the analysis arm of cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, also believes that macro bottom triggers are needed that are clearer than current conditions.
In an update on Wednesday, the agency wrote: "While macro dynamics and Bitcoin's poor performance compared to the Nasdaq and S & P 500 suggest potential pressures, a true downturn requires a stronger trigger, followed by a volume-supported price move."
