Solana prices break through the 200-day moving average, pointing to $100

Solana prices surged 25% in a week, breaking through key moving averages

Solana prices surged 25% in the past week and briefly hit $93.39 on August 21. Market-wide short squeeze pushed SOL above the main moving average. The breakthrough opened the channel for prices to move towards $98 and $100, but overbought readings on the daily chart increased the risk of a short-term correction.

Highlights

Solana prices are up 25% in a week and are currently trading around US$92 after hitting US$93.39.

SOL broke the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

The daily relative strength index (RSI) reached 81.74, putting SOL deep into overbought territory.

Clearing data shows liquidity around US$93 -95, with underlying support around US$90 and US$88.

Solana prices break through two-month trading range

As of press time, Solana (SOL) prices were trading around US$92, rising nearly 5% within the day, and prices fluctuated between US$87.57 and US$93.39. The rise extended the weekly gain to about 25%, and moved the token out of the trading band that has restricted its price since June.

The daily chart shows that SOL broke through the $76 -78 resistance zone, which blocked multiple rebound attempts in July and early August. The rise paid off previous swinging highs near $82 and shifted the short-term market structure from a series of lower highs to higher highs.

Trading activity expanded during the breakthrough period, providing support for prices to move out of previous ranges. SOL is now back to the level it was in May, when sellers repeatedly defended in the $94 to $98 range.

The rally followed a broader cryptocurrency squeeze that wiped out more than $4 billion in short positions in 48 hours. Solana's faster rise relative to several large-market assets reflects its greater volatility during shifts in cryptocurrency market sentiment.

The short squeeze meets institutional and network catalysts

This derivations-driven rebound received additional support from the announced partnership between Shinhan Asset Management and the Solana Foundation. The South Korean asset manager plans to test a won-denominated tokenized bond fund that mimics BlackRock's BUIDL product.

This pilot project complements Solana's efforts to attract tokenized real-world assets and institutional financial products. However, its impact on SOL demand will depend on the fund's final size, issue terms and on-chain activities, which are not determined on the price chart.

Internet activity also supports the bullish narrative, with Solana reportedly processing 1.2 billion non-voting transactions in a week. The recent increase in computing limits per block provides more capacity for applications, while the planned upgrade to Alpenglow aims to shorten final confirmation times and change how validator votes are processed.

Broader U.S. market conditions are also positive for risky assets. The market context provided links the recovery to increased Treasury buybacks, lower long-term yields and a weakening U.S. dollar. Washington's renewed push for the Digital Asset Market Clarification Act and the Securities and Exchange Commission's proposed Crypto-Asset Regulatory Framework has also improved regulatory sentiment, although further action is needed before both measures become final policy.

SOL overbought RSI warns of high risk

The daily chart confirms the strength of the breakthrough, but also shows that momentum has been overstretched. SOL's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 81.74, well above the 70 level usually associated with overbought conditions.

An overbought RSI does not require an immediate reversal. However, it does suggest that prices are rising much faster than recent averages and may need to consolidate before rising sustainably again.

SOL currently trades above its 20-day simple moving average ($77.06), 50-day moving average ($76.92) and 100-day moving average ($76.38). The token also broke through its 200-day moving average near $81.18, which was previously the most important long-term resistance level on the chart.

Short-term moving averages are closely clustered around US$76 -77, setting the benchmark for breakthroughs. If prices fall back into this region in the future, it will constitute a complete step back, but the closer support level is US$87 -90.

The 4-hour chart shows a similar extension. SOL is trading around $92, while the upper track of the Bollinger Band is at $94.19. The mid-track is much lower, at $83.54, indicating that prices have quickly moved away from recent averages.

Solana clearing map focuses on $95 and $98

According to CoinGlass's 3-day clearing heat map, SOL climbed multiple layers of short liquidity between $80 and $92. Forced buying triggered by the liquidation of short positions may have contributed to the near-vertical rise.

The remaining liquidity appears to be concentrated in the range of approximately US$93 to US$95 above current market prices. Breaking through this area could trigger another round of forced buying, but the chart shows that once SOL breaks through $95, liquidity density above will decrease.

Cryptocurrency trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that around $98 is the next range high and believes that if SOL reaches an equivalent high near that level, there may be another short squeeze. His chart sets a larger range between about $67.60 and $97.60.

Altcoin Sherpa expressed a similar bullish view, listing $95 as the first target and believing that if Bitcoin remains strong,$120 could be a follow-up target. These two predictions are conditional predictions rather than confirmed results. SOL first needs to hold on to its breakthrough results.

Heat maps also show downward liquidity around $90,$88 and $86. The $86 area contains one of the brightest clusters nearby, and prices may be attracted here if buyers fail to hold on to $90. The larger liquidity concentration area is still around US$80 -81, close to the daily 200-day moving average.

Breaking through US$100 depends on holding US$87 -90

SOL's short-term bullish scenario needs to continue to close above the $93 -95 region. Clearing the area would expose a May range high (about $98), followed by a psychological level of $100.

A confirmation of a breakthrough of $100 could strengthen the view that SOL's long-term decline from its 2025 high is over. The next target mentioned by Altcoin Sherpa is $120, but the current chart does not confirm this extension.

The bearish scenario starts with being blocked below $95 and falling below $90. Such a trend could bring SOL back to US$87 -88, while a deeper correction would bring the mid-track of the 4-hour Bollinger Band (approximately US$83.54) and the 200-day moving average (approximately US$81.18) into focus.

For U.S. investors, Treasury yields, the strength of the U.S. dollar and progress in cryptocurrency legislation at the federal level remain important external catalysts. However, the short-term direction of SOL may depend on whether spot buying can replace the mandatory buying that drove the initial short squeeze.