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Following
XRP XRP's brief rebound in August has subsided, volatility has almost disappeared, and the market is waiting for a Senate vote and a Federal Reserve decision.
XRP's brief rebound in August has now completely subsided, and the token is currently trading in the price range of US$1.34 to US$1.37. Market data from TradingView shows that volatility has basically disappeared, and the Bollinger Band on the daily chart narrows into a tight horizontal channel. This period of low volatility is often referred to as "anti-volatility" and often signals a temporary pause in market activity for the asset.
A major event is approaching and liquidity is exhausted
This long-term calm is not without reason. Major institutional investors and large households have shown obvious hesitation and are reluctant to establish new positions, preferring to wait until important macroeconomic events occur next week before taking action.
One of the main factors is the U.S. Senate vote on the CLARITY Act scheduled for September 15. The legislative proposal stalled over the summer, prompting many market participants to suspend market activities. During this period, inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) fell significantly, falling as much as 93%.
Another major development is the Federal Reserve's plan to announce its interest rate decision on September 16. As U.S. inflation rises, the producer price index reaches 5.4%, and Brent crude oil prices exceed $107 a barrel, markets are increasingly expecting the central bank to adopt a hawkish stance. The current probability of raising interest rates is as high as 70%. As a result, institutional investors mainly reallocate assets into cash positions to reduce risk exposure.
Shift in position behavior supports prices and prevents further declines
Against this backdrop, XRP seems to have gained support to prevent deep price declines due to shifts in holder behavior. CryptoQuant, a leading cryptocurrency data analysis platform, reported that after a large number of XRPs poured into the exchange on September 9, a rapid reversal occurred and tokens were quickly withdrawn from the trading platform. Within one day, the XRP reserves of Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, fell to 2.631 billion pieces.
This shift to self-custody was triggered by XRP hitting a local low of $1.33, prompting many traders to stop selling and withdraw their coin holdings in anticipation of further news.
Market Outlook: Possible Scenarios for XRP
Historical data from previous cumulative cycles reveals two possible time frames for a sustained integration period of XRP:
- Short-term cycles: During the observed partial recovery in 2025, the duration is between 79 and 89 days. If this pattern repeats itself, a new round of price movements may not appear until late November or early December 2026.
- Macroscopic period: points to a longer drift period. Before its rally at the end of August, XRP went through a long sideways consolidation that lasted nearly eight months (236 days). This means that if bearish conditions persist, a new breakthrough may not occur until the spring of 2027.
A period of anti-volatility marked by tight Bollinger bands and low trading volumes has previously been accompanied by long sideways movements of XRP. Current price movements seem to be linked to major upcoming events in the macro environment and regulatory landscape, and participants are waiting for a new catalyst to determine the next trend.
As the integration phase progresses, the true duration of the XRP downturn trading will likely be set by the Senate's decision on the regulatory bill and the results of the Fed's interest rate policy in the coming days.
Mini Dictionary: CLARITY Act
A proposed U.S. bill designed to provide regulatory direction for the digital asset market may have a potential impact on how cryptocurrencies like XRP are classified and governed.
