XRP price analysis: US$1.35 faces a surge in Binance capital inflows

Core Points

$1.35 triggered an initial buying response. Binance received 91.2 million XRPs in a single day.
$1.30 is a clearer structural support level.
$1.40 and $1.45 limit rebound attempts. Exchange inflows do not equate to exact selling pressure.

XRP is still in the downtrend channel

According to TradingView's XRP/USD daily chart, XRP is currently trading around $1.36 at the time of writing, after falling back from a high of nearly $1.70 at the end of August. Although XRP has rebounded modestly from its latest low, it is still below a downtrend line and the first Fibonacci retracement level close to $1.40.

This makes $1.35 the current immediate response area. Analyst Ali Charts cited Glassnode data as pointing out that there is a sizable cluster of XRP cost bases around this level. Such clusters can attract buyer interest, but they only translate into meaningful support if prices hold true in subsequent testing.

XRP is at critical support levels. Worth paying close attention.
15[ TAG_15]- Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 12, 2026

The RSI indicator is near 54, above its neutral axis but below the moving average near 59. Momentum has cooled from previous rallies, but the indicator has yet to show new upside momentum.

Moving averages reveal why the current range is a major problem. XRP is still above the 200-day moving average near $1.27, while the 50-day moving average and 100-day moving average are at lower levels, around $1.22 and $1.17 respectively. If the correction deepens, these levels could become subsequent reference points, but they are too far from current prices to resolve the current game around $1.30.

Binance received 91.2 million XRPs at the low of the range

The latest CryptoQuant Binance Exchange inflow chart shows that approximately 91.2 million XRPs were transferred to the platform on September 11, the largest reading for the month shown. Previous daily numbers were mostly much smaller, so this deposit was particularly significant as XRP trading approached the bottom of the critical range.

Exchange inflows refer to the act of transferring XRP to the exchange wallet. Traders often view large inflows as a potential supply warning because tokens already placed on exchanges are easier to sell than those placed in private wallets. However, the transfer alone does not reveal the owner's intentions: it may be related to a sale, market-making activity or internal wallet transfer, rather than an immediate spot transaction.

Subsequent inflows and price reactions are more important

Therefore, the deposit of 91.2 million XRPs is a risk factor rather than evidence of continued selling pressure. If similar transfers continue to occur when XRP closes below $1.30, especially if the balance held by the exchange also increases, their importance will increase. If deposits fall and prices stabilize within ranges, the market may have absorbed available liquidity without widespread supply imbalances.

The chart shows a price map for future daily closing at three decision levels

:

• $1.30: Structural support level
  The bottom of the current range. A daily close below this level would weaken stabilization attempts and expose a 200-day moving average near $1.27.
• $1.40: First rebound test
  This area combines a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level with nearby downtrend resistance. Breaking through this position for daily closing prices will improve the short-term structure.
• $1.45: Second rebound test
  38.2% retracement level. If this level is recovered at the close of each day,$1.50 or even $1.55 will come back into view.

$1.35 triggered a market reaction; but $1.30 is a range that needs to be held to make the reaction meaningful. A close below this will not end the long-term trend of XRP, but will make the current attempt to rebound unconvincing.

There are still two obstacles to the rebound towards $1.60

Ali Charts suggested that if the $1.35 area is defended and $1.38 is recovered, it could start a rebound towards $1.60 or even potentially $1.68. But this is still a conditional scenario rather than a conclusion based on the current chart.

XRP needs to recover $1.40 first with daily close, then $1.45. Recovering $1.45 shifts attention from defensive support to testing $1.50-$1.55, followed by a Fibonacci level near $1.61.

Price absorption will show the importance of deposit behavior

While a large number of tokens arrive at Binance, XRP is testing sensitive parts of its range. If prices remain resilient despite subsequent reductions in inflows, the market may have absorbed potential supply. If support failure is accompanied by continued deposits, the weight of warnings on the chain will increase. Current data is not enough to determine which results are occurring.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.