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XRP Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple: A key turning point before the Federal Reserve's decision
As the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision day approaches on September 16, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple (XRP) are facing a more important question than "Will policymakers raise interest rates": Have the response pattern of cryptoassets to monetary tightening changed? Has the market adapted to a new world of high yields?
After a week of violent shocks dominated by inflation data, oil price fluctuations and the government bond market, Bitcoin prices remained at around US$77,000, Ethereum was close to US$2,500, and Ripple lingered in the range of US$1.35 to US$1.40. Surprisingly, although the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond approached 5%, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond exceeded 4.5%, the cryptocurrency market did not fall significantly. This resilience is becoming a signal worthy of attention.
September 16 will bring clear guidance rather than just interest rate hikes
Wall Street's response to Friday's consumer price index report provides an unusual clue. Although inflation data reinforced the case for tightening monetary policy, stocks bucked the trend and rallied. Investors seemed relieved that the report eliminated uncertainty about the Fed's next move rather than just focusing on the prospects of raising interest rates. This shift in mentality is also of great significance to the crypto market.
For most of September, Bitcoin has been coping with multiple factors such as changes in interest rate expectations, oil prices exceeding $100, and rising yields. Previously, the tug-of-war between oil price fluctuations and the ETF game has shown that even if macro conditions deteriorate, Bitcoin can still stabilize around US$80,000. Now, the suspense surrounding the September meeting is gradually dissipating, and the market focus has shifted from "what actions the Fed will take" to "what will happen after the decision is made."
Bitcoin may be testing new narrative logic
Mark Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions, believes that changes in the bond market may reflect broader trends that exceed traditional interest rate expectations. He pointed out that persistent inflation, rising oil prices and concerns about the credibility of policies have kept long-term yields high despite the Treasury's efforts to support the bond market. In this environment, Bitcoin may perform differently than typical growth assets, as investors may also see it as a protective tool against the devaluation of fiat currencies. This tension has become apparent as gold responds to inflation.
US$75,000 and US$82,000 become the key range for September
Technical analysis draws clear boundaries for the Fed meeting. Jasper De Maere, a trader at Wintermute, recently pointed out that $75,000 and $82,000 are important bitcoin price levels around the September macro window.
If Bitcoin breaks through US$82,000 after the Federal Reserve's decision, it indicates that the ability of the crypto market to absorb a high interest rate environment is better than expected; if it falls below US$75,000, it will strengthen the traditional asset relationship logic: high yields, tight liquidity and a strong dollar will still put huge pressure on risky assets. Ethereum and Ripple are likely to follow the same liquidity signals, although Ripple is also influenced by its unique institutional regulatory catalyst.
