HYPE prices face first major test after rebound at $77

Core Points

HYPE rebounded at $77 support. The four-hour RSI showed a bearish divergence. The trading price was close to $80.50 when HYPE wrote. Channel resistance coincides with $80.5 Fibonacci resistance.$ 81.50-$84 is the next key barrier.

HYPE rebounded into crowded resistance areas

HYPE fell to around $77 before the decline slowed. This area combines previous horizontal support, a simple 200-cycle moving average on the four-hour chart, and the lower edge of the downcomer channel. These single levels do not guarantee that prices will stabilize, but their combination makes the area a potential focus for traders to defend. The rally has pushed HYPE to the other side of the aisle, and buyers now face a more difficult task.

There is a bearish RSI divergence at the resistance level

The four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of a bearish divergence: Although HYPE prices are higher, the RSI has formed a lower high. Simply put, although prices have risen, the momentum has not kept pace. The Hyperliquid four-hour price chart shows that bearish divergences do not always lead to declines, but when prices appear at resistance levels (e.g., when HYPE is near the upper boundary of the channel), their reference value is higher. If you can break through and close above the area, this warning signal will weaken; if it is rejected, the signal will increase in weight.

Channel resistance and $80.5 Fibonacci horizontal convergence

At the time of writing, HYPE is trading at close to $80.50, directly below the upper boundary of its four-hour downtrend channel (approximately $80.50-$81). The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart almost coincides with it, at $80.5. Fibonacci retracement levels are chart levels used by traders to assess the proportion of previous markets that have recovered or withdrawn. Here, HYPE acts as resistance as it attempts to recover the level from below.

If the closing price is above the channel on the four-hour chart, it indicates that HYPE has broken the short-term downward trend. If the daily closing price is higher than $80.5, it constitutes a second confirmation. If prices subsequently pull back and stabilize above that level, previous resistance will begin to turn into support.

Key HYPE prices in the chart

• $80.50-$81: Channel upper boundary and daily 0.236 Fibonacci retracement.
• $81.50-$84: Horizontal resistance levels, four-hour charts with 50-cycle and 100-cycle moving averages, and broader supply areas.
• $77: Previous price support, four-hour chart 200-cycle moving average and channel bottom.
• $75 and $70.33: Daily 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels below current support.

$81.50-$84 area is the next barrier

Breaking through the channel will only push HYPE to the next resistance area. Horizontal resistance starts around $81.50-$82, which is also the gathering point of the 50-cycle and 100-cycle moving averages on the four-hour chart. This broader area extends to $84. To move the chart upwards, HYPE needs to cross the range of $81.50-$84 after settling above $80.5. A breakthrough accompanied by increased trading volume is more convincing than a single low-volume K-line.

If this resistance cluster is cleared, the recent high of $89.60 will become the next higher reference point. But this is not an automatic goal; prices first need to establish support from current levels above.

Failure at $80.50-$81 will refocus support

If HYPE briefly trades above the channel but eventually closes within the channel, the short-term decline structure will remain intact. A bearish RSI divergence will be consistent with a price rejection signal, putting $77 in the spotlight again. A break below this range would expose a level of $75 near the daily Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382. HYPE has not revisited this level since its rebound in August, which constitutes a deeper test of previous gains. If the daily closing price falls below $75, the 0.5 retracement level of approximately $70.3 will come into view.

The crypto market is in a busy week

The technical analysis comes as the crypto market is facing events that could broadly affect risk appetite. The Senate is scheduled to vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Attention will then turn to the Fed's decision later this week. The outlook provided by policymakers may be crucial to crypto prices. Sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin or the broader market may affect HYPE's ability to hold resistance breakthroughs.

The closing price of $80.5 now has significant weight

The defense of $77 provides HYPE with room to rebound, but the token is currently approaching resistance and the RSI shows upward momentum is weakening. The next daily closing price will clarify which force is stronger. If it closes above $80.5, HYPE will have the opportunity to challenge the $81.50-$84 cluster; if it is rejected, the support range with a median of more than $70 will face re-testing.

This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. As market conditions change, technical points may change.