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XLM Stellar faces resistance as the popularity of Clarity Act recedes.
Cilinix Crypto, a well-known YouTube channel focusing on digital asset market analysis, pointed out that although the fundamentals of Stellar's blockchain continue to improve, its token XLM still faces lasting challenges. Analysts said XLM's long-term trend remains intact, but current market conditions suggest that the cryptocurrency may remain range-bound in the short term as optimism surrounding the Clarity Act fades.
Analysis emphasizes that recent emerging speculation on the proposed Clarity Act has been the main driving force behind XLM's recent rise. The legislation was initially seen as an important step in the United States to provide clearer regulatory guidance for digital assets and briefly gave Stellar upward momentum. However, a shift in view among Senate Democrats has eroded hopes that the bill will pass quickly or gain immediate regulatory clarity. As optimism cools, the possibility of a policy breakthrough in the near future appears slim.
Although trading volumes and the initial excitement caused by the Clarity Act have increased, the excitement has subsided as Senate sentiment has shifted. Currently, XLM is experiencing strong resistance around $0.195. According to Cilinix Crypto's analysis, XLM has repeatedly struggled to break through the main resistance level around $0.195. In the absence of solid regulation or market catalysts, analysts 'underlying scenarios tend to believe that prices will be rejected near these levels rather than achieving a sustainable rebound.
Network fundamentals show growth
Cilinix Crypto 指出，尽管代币正在盘整，但多项网络指标支持 Stellar 更广泛的基本面。据报道，Stellar 网络的总锁仓价值（TVL）从年初的约 1.6 亿美元攀升至 6 月的 2.5 亿美元，而大多数加密市场当时正面临压力。Stellar 的稳定币市值也显著扩大，从 2024 年初的 2 亿美元上升至近 10 亿美元。去中心化交易所交易量在年初较弱，但近期已开始恢复。尽管如此，这些积极趋势尚未引发 XLM 的决定性突破，XLM 仍处于自 7 月以来设定的盘整区间内，支撑位在 $0.17 附近，阻力位在 $0.195 至 $0.205 之间。
小词典：《Clarity Act》
这是一项拟议中的美国法案，旨在澄清区块链和加密货币的监管框架，旨在减少数字资产项目和交易所的法律不确定性。
技术压力与衍生品持仓风险
分析师还表达了对衍生品市场持仓的担忧。XLM 的杠杆率有所增加，但资金费率仍为正数。历史上，正资金费率与持续的现货抛售并存时，往往导致 Stellar 的上行空间有限。即使空头头寸不断累积，市场结构可能更有利于区间震荡的价格走势，而非决定性的向上突破。
如果 XLM 能在新的催化剂驱动下突破 $0.195，潜在的上行目标包括 $0.22、$0.225 和 $0.238。然而，如果没有重大政策发展（如《Clarity Act》取得进展），此类行情发生的可能性似乎有限。
分析师表示，在没有新的市场催化剂的情况下，XLM 可能会测试 $0.17 或 $0.165 附近的支撑位，然后长期增长驱动力才会重新受到关注。Cilinix Crypto 表示，宁愿等待回调至更强的支撑位，再考虑 XLM 的新上涨机会，这凸显了不断改善的网络基本面与短期技术障碍之间的脱节。
