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Bitcoin is up 49% from its July low, and analysts expect support of $50,000 to $55,000 by the end of

2026-10-07 00:22:16

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比特币价格波动与周期预测分析

周一，比特币交易价格徘徊在85,800美元附近。这一时间点恰逢2026年10月5日的周期底部日期，此前匿名论坛4chan上的帖子曾提及这一时间框架。据Cryptopolitan计算，相较于7月1日创下的约57,700美元的低点，此次上涨实现了49%的涨幅。

4chan预测模型引发关注

这篇发布于2023年12月12日、位于该平台商业版块（/biz/）且存档于Warosu的匿名帖子，基于以往的比特币市场周期，勾勒出一个重复出现的“四阶段”模式。该模式描述了为期1,064天的稳步上涨阶段，随后是持续364天的回调阶段。

从2015年的低点至2017年的高点，比特币经历了1,064天的增长，随后下跌364天触及2018年的低点。这一序列在从2018年低点至2021年峰值的过程中再次重现。匿名作者预测，下一个历史新高将出现在2025年10月6日。

这位身份不明的发帖者断言：“人们希望情况有所不同，但模拟结果将会重演。”他引用了比特币价格历史中由周期驱动的特性。虽然帖子未明确指出周期的具体底部日期，但根据其数学逻辑——从预测的高点倒推364天——指向了2026年10月5日，这与近期的市场价格活动相吻合。

名词解释：4chan is an anonymous picture board and discussion forum where many early cryptocurrency theories and predictions have been circulated over the years. Its business and finance section/biz/is known for speculative posts about the Bitcoin market and crypto trends.

Recent price movements and analyst views

In recent transactions, Bitcoin hit US$86,970 at one point, only US$430 below its peak near US$87,400 at the end of September, followed by a slight retracement of about US$1,000. Monday's rally failed to surpass the recent high for the second attempt in a week.

U.S. employment data released on Friday reportedly showed only 29,000 new jobs were created in September, easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is down approximately 32% from the October 2025 cyclical high of US$126,198. 21Shares, a product provider on the Swiss crypto exchange, commented that the market adjustment in 2026 will be more moderate compared to previous cycles that experienced a decline of more than 80%. The second quarter of 2026 fell 14%, while a rebound in July kept the third quarter performance in positive territory.

Cycle High Point Low Callback Range Resuscitation status 2017 Cycle $20,000 $3,200 84% Implemented 2021 cycle $69,000 $15,500 77% Implemented 2025 Cycle $126,198 约$57,700 54%（截至目前）进行中

对下一次底部的展望

Cryptopolitan报道的分析师预测显示，多家研究部门预计下一次主要周期低点将出现在2026年10月至12月之间，比特币的预估底部区间为50,000美元至55,000美元。部分分析师认为2026年第三季度可能是这一低点的潜在时间窗口。另一项分析提出，如果交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求有助于限制价格下跌，且回撤幅度保持在峰值的70%以内，市场可能在2026年夏季形成底部。

2024年4月的减半事件（减少矿工区块奖励）出现在许多市场周期模型中。历史周期表明，重大低点通常在该事件发生后的24至28个月出现。在之前的周期中，“投降式”抛售以大幅价格崩盘为标志：2018年12月跌至3,200美元，2022年底跌至15,500美元。

通常情况下，第四季度被认为处于周期高点后的12至15个月——这一模式在过去比特币熊市市场中有所体现。然而，研究报告警告称，经济衰退或更严格的监管措施可能会将潜在的底部推迟至2027年第一季度。

截至发稿时，比特币估值约为86,190美元，过去24小时内上涨了1.1%。

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