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BTC 前BitMEX首席执行官Arthur Hayes：AI淘金潮将冲向悬崖，随后政府救助或推高加密资产价格
前BitMEX首席执行官Arthur Hayes表示，人工智能（AI）领域的“淘金热”正径直冲向悬崖，随之而来的政府救助措施可能会推动加密货币价格上涨。他声称，当前的AI投资热潮是不可持续的，最终必将崩溃，并指出数万亿美元的资金正在被浪费在AI数据中心的建设上。
Maelstrom联合创始人进一步辩称，对数据中心投资的增加最终将导致算力过剩，从而引发成本的急剧下降。“如果你研究金融历史，并考察每一项重大技术的推出过程，你会发现总是会出现过度建设的情况。随之而来的必然是一次崩盘，以及一次救助。”他对记者说道。
Hayes预测比特币可能突破100万美元大关
目前，许多企业和政府正投入数十亿美元建设AI基础设施。与华尔街视为由股权融资推动的科技泡沫不同，Hayes认为，对数据中心和电网扩建的巨大投资类似于由信贷驱动的商业房地产泡沫。
He believes that lenders, governments and other private entities support these huge projects based on the fallacy of "there is no end to AI demand." Therefore, he expects this large-scale overcapacity to trigger a downward cycle. He predicted that the rebound in technology stocks would lose momentum in mid-to-late 2027 and fall into a significant stagnation in 2028. He pointed out that the core danger is that debt markets are still expanding while actual development is stagnating, creating a textbook-like environment for a credit crunch.
AI infrastructure boom may lead to overcomputing power
The possibility of oversupply does not mean that AI demand will disappear. But Hayes 'view is that infrastructure investment may grow far faster than revenue generated by AI services. If computing costs fall as more facilities come online, companies may have data center capacity that exceeds their limit for profitable use.
This dynamic may benefit AI developers and users in the long term. Lower computing costs will make it cheaper to train and run increasingly powerful models, potentially encouraging more companies to deploy AI agents and other automated services. However, it could also put pressure on companies that invest heavily in expensive infrastructure and rely on continued growth in AI demand to justify costs.
对于加密市场而言，Hayes将供应过剩视为一个持续存在的周期，而非迫在眉睫的危险。如果回报率下降引发信贷市场的违约或压力，政府可能会出手援助战略性AI公司和基础设施项目。Hayes认为，由此产生的流动性最终可能会流入比特币等风险资产。
尽管预期AI投资将出现低迷，Hayes断言政府救助是不可避免的，因为该技术已成为国家安全和战略主导地位的核心基石。他认为，那些为不可避免的救助做好准备的投资者将获得巨大收益，正如那些从2008年金融危机后的干预措施中获利的人一样。他进一步预测，这些由国家赞助的干预措施将远远超过2008年后的流动性注入，并可能涌入数字资产领域。
“幸运的是，我们有比特币和其他加密货币来吸收这些过剩的流动性，所以我们知道当救助来临时，哪种资产表现最好。”他说。
他在Substack上撰文进一步解释道，随着AI基础设施支出的放缓和信贷的持续流动，比特币将开始一轮长期的上涨行情。随后一波恐慌性的国家干预将成为推动加密货币突破100万美元的最终催化剂。
科技公司寻求基础设施回报
Hayes also argued that the entities driving the AI infrastructure craze, including SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, have not yet achieved profitability on their vast computing development. Therefore, he believes that once current data center construction is completed, these infrastructure builders will actively pursue billions of dollars in computing contract payments.
He pointed out that the optimistic rebuttal relies on AI becoming indispensable in the coming year, and that surging user demand will turn these cash-burning technology companies around. He further argued that the AI boom has benefited companies such as Nvidia and memory chip makers.
Still, he believes the key question facing investors is whether the valuations of these companies are reasonable relative to their expected earnings.
In addition, Hayes is launching Flop, a crypto venture capital project focused on AI agent payments that is expected to debut in the first quarter of 2027. In this regard, he argued that there is market demand in this field because cheaper and more abundant computing power will promote the growth of AI agents.
