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BTC Bitcoin cryptocurrency news: MVRV signals, BTC rebound and bear market risks in 2026
Today's Bitcoin cryptocurrency news raises a core question: Is the bear market finally over? Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at close to $84,000, and key indicator MVRV has just turned positive. According to bitcoin-mvrv-ratio data provided by Axeladlerjr Charts, the reading is currently around 1.55, above its average annual average of 1.44.
According to information released by Coinglass, this turning point has also occurred before the market recovery in 2019 and 2023.
Is the Bitcoin bear market over? What exactly does the MVRV signal reveal?
MVRV (market capital-to-realized value ratio) compares the market value of Bitcoin to the average cost to the holder. Rising readings suggest buyers are regaining advantage. Judging whether the Bitcoin bear market is over is crucial because the previous decline was very sharp: it fell sharply from the ATH (the highest in history) of nearly $126,198 in October 2025 to a low of about $58,000 in mid-2026, a drop of about 54%.
Other signals also point in the same direction. Galaxy Research found that in bear markets, new lows were avoided in 11 of the 13 early weekly recoveries of the 50-week moving average. Currently, Bitcoin has closed above this moving average for four consecutive weeks, which is approximately US$76,600.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen said that when Bitcoin's weekly closing price exceeds $83,000, bulls take control. He suggested that holding fixed votes (DCA) in the second half of the midterm election year is the right approach.
Today's crypto market gains: BTC prices and drivers of gains
The short answer to why Bitcoin has risen today is "short squeeze." According to the latest data from CoinMarketCap as of October 12, the key points are as follows:
- Today's Bitcoin price: About US$83,927, up 1.13% in 24 hours
- Liquidation: Short positions worth US$41.36 million were forced to be closed, an increase of 890%(Data source: CoinMarketCap)
- Overall performance of the crypto market today: Total market value is US$2.85 trillion (+1.42%), the Fear and Greed Index is at a neutral level of 58
- Macro boost: Oil price easing improves risk appetite in various markets
U.S. CPI data will be released on October 14, which will be the next major trigger affecting bitcoin prices in the near future, followed by the U.S. midterm election on November 3.
Michael Siler's Bitcoin purchase behavior and institutional buying shaping prices
Michael Saylor's Strategy company continues to buy Bitcoin, which continues to affect market sentiment. As of October 12, the company held 848,000 bitcoins, with a total value of nearly US$70.48 billion based on an average cost of US$76,441 (Source: SaylorTracker).
Saylor's latest post stated: "There is always room for more oranges," a phrase often used to imply that the company will further purchase BTC.
Policy factors also played a role. In mid-August, the U.S. Treasury Department increased the scale of long-term bond repurchases from $2 billion per time to at least $4 billion. This eased yield pressure and was related to previous inflows of approximately $4.6 billion to $5.3 billion in spot ETF funds (source: SoSoValue). Currently, institutional and corporate vaults hold approximately 13% of the Bitcoin supply.
BTC price risk: upcoming CPI data and macro pressures
The cautious faction has a solid basis. The bottom was shallow this time, and MVRV never fell below 1.0, while readings in 2015, 2018 and 2022 were 0.5 to 0.8 respectively. As a result, some analysts believe the rally is driven by liquidity, and BitGo's research paper points to the possibility of a retest or long-term consolidation.
- There was an outflow of ETF funds in early October after the September surge.
- The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is still above 5%
- The repurchase program is expected to phase out in early November.
The risk to the BTC price remains real. Digital assets are highly volatile. This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
The latest Bitcoin news shows divided views. The positive side is the strong momentum, while the negative side is the shallow level of capitulation and the fading liquidity. In the current context of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news, the CPI data and the end of the Treasury's repurchase program will test which views dominate. The coming weeks will show whether this is a bottom-building phase or a temporary pause.
