Exchange Ranking
Top Exchanges
24h Volume Ranking
Popularity Ranking
Exchange BTC Balance
Proof of Reserves
Decentralized Exchanges
Funding Rate
Funding Heatmap
Liquidation Data
Max Pain
Long/Short Ratio
Whale L/S Ratio
Binance/Okex/Huobi L/S
Bitfinex Margin L/S
ETF Tracker
Solana ETF
XRP ETF
Hong Kong ETF
Bitcoin Treasuries
Crypto Reversal
Ethereum Reserves
HyperLiquid Wallet Analysis
Hyperliquid Whale Watch
Large Transactions
On-chain Movement
Bitcoin ROI
Stablecoin Market Cap
Options Analysis
News
Articles
Economic Calendar
Features
Wallet
Contract Calculator
Security
Collections
Watchlist
Following
BTC 
ETH 
SOL Bitcoin returns above $80,000, but Fidelity says the rebound is not enough to confirm the end of the bear market.
Bitcoin (BTC) regained its footing above $80,000 after a 4.3% gain on Friday. However, Fidelity pointed out that the current signs of a rebound are not enough to confirm that the bear market in the crypto market is over.
Core Points
- After a strong rally in late August, Bitcoin posted its strongest monthly gain since November 2024.
- If the four-year market cycle repeats itself, Fidelity still believes that a November 2026 low may be reached; however, a bottom may have been established in July.
- Fidelity is paying close attention to signals including increased user adoption, improved regulatory environment, and a shift in market volatility from low to high.
Bitcoin Cycle Outlook
Fidelity said in its fourth-quarter crypto market outlook report released in September that Bitcoin was under pressure for most of the third quarter until a rebound in late August brought its strongest monthly gain since November 2024. The company warned that recent gains in themselves did not establish that a new bull market had begun.
Under its "four-year cycle" framework, November remains the focus of market attention, as Bitcoin's last bear market low occurred in November 2022, about four years away from the next possible cycle low. Fidelity said this time point is never accurate and the market may have bottomed out in July or hit a new low again in November or later.
Volatility is another key signal. Bitcoin's volatility was relatively low between June and mid-August, before soaring more than 25% in the third week of August, while Ethereum (ETH) rose 34.1% and Solana (SOL) rose 28%. Fidelity pointed out that this sequence of low-to-high-volatility is similar to the performance at the end of early bear markets, but it does not prove that the current downtrend is over.
Fidelity's market signal analysis
Chris Kuiper, vice president of digital asset research at Fidelity, said that the summer's lull suggests seller power may have been exhausted, with the price of crypto assets approaching the lower end of its historical valuation range. He also pointed out that the "Coldcard" security incident and the stagnation of the CLARITY Act did not push prices to new lows.
Adoption rates continue to expand
Bitwise Investments reported in July that stablecoin trading volume has reached 2.3 times Visa's trading volume; while MetaMask said that the real-world asset (RWA) market will grow faster in 2026 than in any previous year. Fidelity believes that the recovery in August may mean that adoption rates and prices begin to "couple"(i.e., rise in sync).
Policies may be catalysts
The CLARITY Act has passed the House but is still in the Senate's review stage; in addition, the Securities and Exchange Commission's proposed Crypto Asset Regulation aims to address potential registration exemptions for certain early-stage crypto offerings. Fidelity also listed factors such as monetary policy changes, institutional adoption and new crypto use cases, which it believes could help end the bear market.
During the bear market of 2021-2022, there was a divergence between adoption rates and prices, when crypto activity continued to grow even though asset prices continued to fall. When a new bull market begins at the end of 2022, adoption rates and prices have become closer, and Bitcoin's November 2022 low has thus become a reference point for observing the four-year cycle today.
