Profit-taking of 110,000 bitcoins: A bull market correction or a precursor to a larger decline?
CryptoQuant data shows that after the explosive rally in August, Bitcoin investors began to make large-scale profits, selling about 110,000 BTC units in just a few weeks. Analysts warn that historically this highly concentrated profit-taking has often been accompanied by significant price revisions in the underlying asset. In addition, multiple demand indicators have weakened, which may further exacerbate selling pressure.
110,000 bitcoins are in the pocket
Since the price started below US$65,000 on August 19, this major rally has pushed Bitcoin higher to nearly US$80,000 in just two days. According to the latest weekly report of CryptoQuant (CQ), holders achieved a net profit of 23,000 BTC units on August 21, setting a record for profit-taking in a single day this year.
As expected, it is almost inevitable that asset prices will fall back in the following days after such a huge increase. However, it launched the offensive again the following week or so, breaking through $82,000 on Friday, but encountered resistance after the release of U.S. employment data and prices have now fallen back below $80,000.
The report described this massive profit-taking as a typical feature of a "bull market cooling period" but warned that if it continues at such a rapid pace, asset prices could be ready for another round of correction. Historical experience shows that if investors lack confidence in its potential after a major rebound, Bitcoin tends to experience a sharp decline.
"This is a sign of a cooling period for a bull market: it is called a 'bull market' because it occurs in a strong situation; and 'caution' is needed because concentrated profit-taking may limit the upside in the near term," the report said.
Cooling demand
CryptoQuant also points to another reason why Bitcoin may be at risk of a deeper correction even though its price has slipped from $82,400 to $79,600. Spot demand appears to have briefly expanded by 43,000 units, marking the fastest growth rate of the year. However, the indicator has lost momentum and is now back in contraction.
Demand from U.S. investors has also weakened. The most commonly used measure of this demand is the "Coinbase premium", a measure of the difference in asset prices between leading U.S. exchanges and other trading platforms, which has now returned to slightly negative territory at-0.05.
Analysts said that this year alone, a similar period of weak U.S. spot demand has limited the extent of cryptocurrency's rebound three times.
Still, the short-term outlook does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin's rising cycle is over or is about to return to a bear market phase. The current "Bull Score" is 70, above the 60 threshold historically associated with sustainable bull markets. "This makes the overall picture still constructive: Even as short-term momentum cools, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a new bull market." Analysts added,"Once prices close firmly above their 365-day moving average, the 'official' bull market officially kicks off." They pointed out that the key moving average is around $83,000-the same level that had previously prevented Bitcoin from rising in May.

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