XRP faces a critical week: CLARITY vote and Fed decision hang above the $1.36 price level

Core Points

• Revised Provisions of the CLARITY Act: The Senate will hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15, requiring 60 votes in favor to advance. The latest revision of the bill strengthens supervision of the so-called "decentralized" DeFi protocol but has a centralized operating structure, requiring it to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and comply with Bank Secrecy Act obligations.
• The Federal Reserve's decision has attracted additional market attention: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, and the futures market is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as high as 90%. Technically, XRP is gaining support near the $1.33 and 200 daily moving averages, with resistance in the $1.37-$1.40 range.

Market Overview and Macro Background

On Monday, XRP prices remained in the range of $1.35-$1.36. As two major market events unfold one after another this week, market participants are paying close attention to subsequent developments. At the same time, Bitcoin hovers around $77,000, Ethereum transactions close to $2,490, and Solana remains near the $100 mark.

XRP changed hands at around $1.36 in Monday's trading, and its price remained above the key moving average, showing some resilience. However, investors are preparing for two major events coming this week that will have a profound impact on market sentiment.

Political Focus: The Game of the CLARITY Act

The first major event of the week occurred on September 15 at 2:15 pm (EST), the Senate's procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. This cloture vote is not the final passage of legislation, but a key threshold for determining whether the bill can enter the full debate stage. According to the rules, the vote requires at least 60 votes in favor to pass.

Given that Republicans currently only hold 53 Senate seats, this means that the bill must have the support of at least seven Democratic senators to successfully advance. This high threshold makes the legislative process full of uncertainty.

White House Intervention and Ethics Revision

On Friday, President Trump convened a team of advisers to discuss ethical provisions in proposed cryptocurrency legislation. According to a message posted on social media X by well-known cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Rover: "Breaking News: President Trump is reportedly meeting with advisers to discuss the CLARITY Act ahead of Tuesday's crucial Senate vote. matters." The news attracted widespread attention among traders, who evaluated potential political outcomes.

This comes after Rep. Cynthia Lummis released an updated 630-page draft bill on Thursday. She stated that the revision incorporated more than 114 amendments proposed by Democratic colleagues. However, the inclusion of these edits does not automatically translate into definite vote support.

Core changes in the revised bill

The revised bill focuses on decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols that claim to be decentralized but actually maintain a centralized operating structure. Under the new framework, such platforms will face registration requirements with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and must strictly comply with obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act.

Cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis analyzed this on the X platform: "The non-decentralized DeFi protocol must now be registered with the CFTC, and the CFTC and the Ministry of Finance will jointly formulate relevant rules. DeFi-related regulations have been narrowed down to spot transactions only." In addition, the latest draft also clarifies the clarity of the digital asset service provision of credit cooperatives.

Despite discussions held in the White House on Friday, issues regarding the specific formulation of ethical language and the stablecoin reward mechanism have not yet been completely resolved, and the market is still waiting for further official clarifications.

Economic Focus: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet from September 15 to 16, and the interest rate decision announced at 2 p.m. on Wednesday attracted a lot of market attention. Interest rate futures data shows that market pricing believes that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike is about 90%.

The year-on-year inflation rate in August was 3.4%, which continues to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement tightening measures. From a macroeconomic perspective, the Fed's policy direction will continue to dominate market risk appetite this week.

Technical Analysis: XRP Trend Outlook

From a technical perspective, analyst Ali Charts views the $1.31-$1.35 range as a key support area. In a post on the X platform, he pointed out: "As long as XRP holds the $1.31-$1.35 support area, I will observe whether prices will push up towards the apex of the triangle. The key confirmation signal appears at $1.38. If this resistance level is effectively exceeded, it will open the door to $1.60 for prices."

Interpretation of Key Indicators

Monday's technical indicators showed that the XRP's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was around 53, indicating that market momentum was neutral. The MACD indicator remains in slightly negative territory, suggesting that the market is consolidating. Currently, the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.354 provides direct support.

In terms of upward resistance, the first is $1.37, followed by $1.40 and $1.45 if bullish momentum strengthens. Conversely, if the price falls below $1.33, it may delve further to the next support area near $1.30.

As of the close of Monday's trading day, the price of XRP is still firmly above its 50-day EMA ($1.280), 100-day EMA ($1.252) and 200-day EMA ($1.354). The overall trend remains bullish, but it faces a critical juncture in direction selection in the short term.