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BTC Digital Asset Market Clarity Act fails Senate vote
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for U.S. digital assets, failed to gain enough support to pass in the Senate. In this vote, 49 senators voted in favor and 50 senators voted against, falling short of the 60-vote threshold needed to advance the bill.
The bill's failure in a procedural vote in the Senate triggered a sharp sell-off in the bitcoin and altcoin markets. Experts interviewed assessed that this voting result was an important event for market conditions, but did not unilaterally change the long-term structure of the cryptocurrency market. They pointed out that the impact of the interest rate environment is more critical than regulatory policies in determining the medium-to long-term direction of the market.
"The failure to pass the bill is not a structural problem"
Justin d'Anethan, president of Arctic Digital Research, admitted in an interview that the failure of the Clarification Act to pass the Senate was disappointing, but it does not indicate that there is a structural problem in the market.
d'Anethan pointed out that the current Bitcoin price level and previous historical highs all occurred before the Clarification Act came into effect. He emphasized that institutional investors did not see this as a total failure of the regulatory framework, but rather as a delay in the regulatory timetable.
According to the analyst, interest rates and the overall monetary policy environment may be more decisive than regulatory clarity when determining the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
It is not legislation that shapes markets
Rachael Lucas, a cryptocurrency analyst at BTC Markets, gave a similar assessment. She said that in the current cycle of the cryptocurrency market, regulatory efforts are not the key determinant and the market is more sensitive to changes in interest rates.
According to the analyst, investors should pay special attention to the following three key areas in the coming period:
1) Whether the Fed's expected interest rate hike marks the beginning of a longer tightening cycle;
2) Whether the flow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs will accelerate again;
3) Whether there will be an alternative regulatory path that can be advanced without a 60-vote Senate support.
Finally, the analyst pointed out that funds did not leave the market, but concentrated on specific assets. Although she mentioned that progress at the Congressional level was not necessary for a recovery in the fourth quarter, she added that the key to achieving a recovery was that interest rates did not deteriorate further.
Today's Focus: The Federal Reserve
In response to inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve Board (FED) is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023 at today's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with an expected rate increase of 25 basis points. Market pricing shows that the probability of raising interest rates at this meeting exceeds 90%, and it is expected that there will be further interest rate hikes before the end of the year.
