山寨币反弹——为何山寨季尚未到来？

Disclaimer: Content does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks—please invest with caution!

Altcoin rebounds: Why hasn't the "Altcoin Season" arrived yet?

Market participation is expanding, and there is no concentration of derivatives that was common during the peak period of altcoins. This leaves room for position expansion, but there is no guarantee that prices will rise accordingly.

Glassnode does not indicate that altcoin leverage is low.

The Glassnode chart released on September 18 compares the proportion of altcoin and Bitcoin in Open interest contracts in futures. This indicator measures the concentration of derivatives positions rather than the leverage multiple used by individual traders.

The orange line in the graph represents the percentage difference between the two proportions. When the numerical depth is negative, it means that Bitcoin still accounts for the vast majority of open contracts. When the line approaches the zero axis, it indicates that the altcoins are competing for more futures market share.

Glassnode sets the risk threshold approximately five percentage points below the equilibrium point. The latest reading on the chart currently shows the gap at about 12 percentage points, which means that altcoin positions have not yet entered the area associated with previous periods of market stress.

However, this reading cannot be used as a safety signal. Even if the overall altcoin market falls below this threshold, individual tokens may already have crowded trading positions. In addition, the data did not indicate whether newly established futures positions were long or short, and whether spot buyers followed derivatives traders into the market.

The chart reveals a more nuanced view: Altcoins have not yet captured enough market share of tracking open interest to reproduce this particular historical warning sign. As traders return to Bitcoin, this gap may continue to narrow, remain the status quo, or widen again.

A reading of 45 does not mean that the "altcoin season" has arrived.

As of the September 19 check, CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index was 45. The index is calculated based on the number of eligible top 100 cryptocurrencies that have outperformed Bitcoin in the previous 90 days.

CoinMarketCap excludes stablecoins such as USDT and DAI, and asset-backed tokens such as WBTC and stETH. Therefore, a reading of 45 means that 45% of eligible tokens outperformed Bitcoin during the measurement period. The platform requires this ratio to reach 75%, before it will define the market as being in the "altcoin season."

The 90-day window prevents several strong trading days from immediately changing tag status. This also explains why the index may still remain below 50 despite a large number of altcoins rising that day. The former measures recent market breadth, while the latter asks whether the advantage over Bitcoin has lasted for three months.

The latest gains are greater than what the 90-day index reflects.

Our review of the altcoin-led rally on September 18 found that among the largest 60 cryptocurrencies, 31 of the 45 eligible assets rose more than 5% in 24 hours, with 14 of them recording double-digit growth.

领涨板块涵盖了去中心化金融（DeFi）、以太坊扩展网络、Layer-1区块链、隐私币、模因代币（Meme tokens）以及现实世界资产项目。这种广泛的参与度很难用单一项目的公告或某个短命的板块运动来解释。

但这仍然只是一个每日快照。要将CMC指数提升至75，许多这些资产必须在随后的回调中保持对比特币的优势，而不是将其让出。