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ETH 以太坊价格分析：日线图
日线图显示，自6月低点约1500美元以来，市场结构呈现出清晰的改善态势。随后，以太坊建立了更高的低点，并在8月加速上涨后突破了2000至2100美元的区间。这一阶段是结构上最强的走势，但导致9月份进入整理期，这成为当前趋势的重要参考依据。
以太坊近期曾试探2800美元高点后反转。目前约2640美元的价位正处于标记的2600至2700美元阻力区内。若能实现每日收盘价持续站稳该区域之上，将强化突破结构，并将3000美元区域作为下一个直接阻力位。
在下行方面，首要支撑位位于2400至2500美元的同一整理区域。然而，若出现更深入的回调，以太坊可能会向2100美元支撑区靠拢，那里100日和200日移动平均线正在接近，可能形成潜在的看涨交叉。这使得上述区域成为市场必须坚守的关键水平，以避免再次陷入下行螺旋。
以太坊/USDT 4小时图
4小时图更清晰地展示了近期的整理和受阻情况。以太坊从约2400美元反弹并急剧拉升，触及2800美元区域。然而，随后的几根K线未能维持高位，导致回调至2600美元阻力区。
Therefore, the current focus of the game is concentrated in the $2600 to $2700 range. After being blocked near $2800, Ethereum is currently trading closer to the lower edge of the area. If it can recover above $2700, the recent short-term high of around $2800 will receive renewed attention.
Conversely, if obstacles continue to be blocked in the current region, Ethereum may move closer to bullish order blocks around $2450. This is the most important near-term downside area on the chart. If this position is lost, it will weaken the short-term breakthrough structure and may expose the next order block near $2250.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also deteriorated significantly from recent overbought readings and is currently below 50. This reflects a weakening of short-term momentum rather than a confirmed large-level trend reversal. However, in order to maintain the integrity of the bullish structure, Ethereum ideally needs to stabilize above the $2500 region.
On-chain data analysis
Exchange supply ratio measures the proportion of Ethereum's circulating supply stored on the exchange. Falling ratios typically mean less of the available ETH supply is held on exchanges, while rising ratios indicate more ETH is held in exchange wallets.
The chart shows that Ethereum's exchange-to-supply ratio has dropped significantly in the past few years. With ETH regaining ground above $2500, the indicator has fallen from around 0.18 at the beginning of 2025 to around 0.123 today.
最新动向尤为引人关注，因为尽管ETH近期加速上涨，但交易所供应量比率仍持续处于图表所示的最低水平附近。这表明在整个复苏过程中，相对于总供应量，存放在交易所的ETH数量持续收缩。
从市场结构的角度来看，持续较低的交易所供应量比率可能意味着交易所内可供潜在抛售的ETH立即可用性降低。然而，仅凭该指标并不能确立价格必然上涨，当前在2800美元附近的阻力也显示出阻力依然有效，任何供应量的缩减都需伴随充足的需求，以推动复苏进一步深入。
