Exchange Ranking
Top Exchanges
24h Volume Ranking
Popularity Ranking
Exchange BTC Balance
Proof of Reserves
Decentralized Exchanges
Funding Rate
Funding Heatmap
Liquidation Data
Max Pain
Long/Short Ratio
Whale L/S Ratio
Binance/Okex/Huobi L/S
Bitfinex Margin L/S
ETF Tracker
Solana ETF
XRP ETF
Hong Kong ETF
Bitcoin Treasuries
Crypto Reversal
Ethereum Reserves
HyperLiquid Wallet Analysis
Hyperliquid Whale Watch
Large Transactions
On-chain Movement
Bitcoin ROI
Stablecoin Market Cap
Options Analysis
News
Articles
Economic Calendar
Features
Wallet
Contract Calculator
Security
Collections
Watchlist
Following
BTC Core Points
Cathie Wood believes Bitcoin is surpassing gold. Outstanding performance does not necessarily mean an increase in the value of the dollar. A rebound in gold will be a test of Bitcoin's lead.
Bitcoin can outperform gold without the U.S. dollar appreciation
On ARK Invest's "In The Know" video program, Wood analyzed a chart that pointed out that the price of Bitcoin has increased while the price of gold has fallen. She described the improving "Bitcoin/gold" ratio as a trend turning point in favor of Bitcoin:
"We believe this turning point has arrived for Bitcoin."
This ratio is calculated by dividing the dollar price of Bitcoin by the dollar price per troy ounce of gold, showing how many ounces of gold a Bitcoin can buy. When Bitcoin appreciates faster than gold, the ratio will rise; but even if the price of gold falls and the price of Bitcoin remains flat, the ratio will improve as the denominator decreases.
Therefore, an increase in the ratio does not guarantee a dollar profit. If gold fell more, even if Bitcoin shrank in value, it could still outperform gold. This becomes clear when calculating the difference in price change between the two:
Hypothetical example (non-current market return)
- Price change: Bitcoin rose 10%; gold was flat.
Ratio change: +10%. Bitcoin gains both in dollar value and relative to gold. - Price changes: Bitcoin was flat; gold fell 10%.
Change in ratio: About +11.1%, at which time Bitcoin did not appreciate the dollar. - Price changes: Bitcoin fell 5%; gold fell 10%.
Ratio change: About +5.6%, although Bitcoin lost its dollar value.
Measurement periods are equally important. Bitcoin transactions span weekends, while traditional gold markets have different trading hours. Comparing prices with the same timestamp avoids mistaking Bitcoin's unilateral movement for simultaneous performance with older gold quotes. A few days of improvement can also have a very different visual effect compared to a few months of comparison.
Wood cited research covering the correlation between Bitcoin and gold since 2019, with data showing a correlation of approximately 0.1 and a negative recent relationship. This low number describes the weak relationship in the indicators she cited; it does not refer to which assets will yield higher returns. Bitcoin's "digital gold" label describes its theory as a store of value and does not require its price to follow gold.
Although gold has fallen, it still has a source of demand
The decline in gold at the end of September provided another market background. Reuters reported that gold prices fell by about 4% on September 28 due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, rising bond yields and expectations of tightening monetary policy. Then, the next day, gold prices rebounded.
这一回调表明，黄金的疲软可以改善比特币的相对地位，而无需比特币价格出现相应的增长。但这并不能独立确立 Wood 所描述的转折的规模或持续时间，这需要对比她图表中所示期间两种资产的表现。
黄金的需求不仅限于对美元和利率的预期。世界黄金协会在其 2026 年下半年的展望中指出，储备多元化是央行持续购金的原因之一。它还指出，地缘政治不确定性支撑了投资需求。这些需求来源可能有助于黄金抵御来自强势美元的打压。
美元在 Wood 论点中的定位
Wood 预计，以技术为主导的投资将在支持美元的同时，通过生产力提升降低通胀。她对美元走强的预期有助于解释为何她认为黄金面临进一步压力。用同一种货币（美元）计价比特币和黄金使它们的价格具有可比性，但这并没有消除美元经济影响力对这两个市场的潜在作用。
Raoul Pal 则关注另一种结果。在他关于比特币前景和美元的报道中，他寻找美元走弱以支持持续的加密市场复苏的迹象。他的融资论点涉及比特币长期上涨的条件；而 Wood 的比较关注的是比特币相对于黄金的表现。即使在美元反弹条件艰难的情况下，相对收益仍可能发生。
比特币的领先地位需经受住黄金反弹的考验
如果比特币在黄金反弹时仍能保持其相对收益，那么仅凭黄金疲软来解释其优势将更加困难。这将比主要在黄金抛售期间改善的比率，提供更有力的证据来证明比特币自身的价格强度。
买入数据可以帮助评估这种强度。现货比特币 ETF 中持续的净流入将通过一个可识别的渠道展示需求，尽管它们无法捕捉到所有买家。仅凭比率上升无法确立投资者卖出黄金购买比特币的行为；证明这种轮动的证据必须来自他们的交易或资产配置。
如果黄金反弹速度快于比特币，且比率回落，那么 Wood 所确定的转折看起来就不那么持久。在此期间，比特币的美元价格可能仍然上涨，但它相对于黄金的购买力却在下降。这将削弱她的相对表现观点，而不一定结束比特币的美元价格复苏。
本文仅供信息参考，不构成投资建议。市场关系可能会发生变化，过去的表现不能保证未来的回报。
