Chain prices fall 5%: Can LINK rebound above $15?

LINK价格跌至13.35美元附近，机构产品与链上活跃度分化

随着交易者权衡降温的市场动能、新推出的机构级产品以及基于以太坊的新地址增长有限等因素，Chainlink（LINK）的价格已下跌近5%，触及13.35美元。目前LINK日内跌幅为4.74%，周跌幅达到7.09%。

市场概况与技术面分析

10月7日，CoinGecko数据显示LINK交易价格处于13美元中位区间。在最近的24小时内，该代币最高曾触及14.11美元，随后回落。快照显示，24小时跌幅为4.74%，七日跌幅为7.09%，交易量约为3.225亿美元。LINK的流通供应量约为7.5亿枚，使其市值接近100亿美元，位列全球前15大加密货币之一。

从技术图表来看，LINK短期指标在最新反弹尝试后有所减弱。当前价格约在13.38美元，略低于布林带中轨13.66美元。布林带上轨位于15.32美元左右，下轨则在12.00美元附近。若抛售持续，12美元将成为下一个关键技术支撑位。

相对强弱指数（RSI）目前约为51.17，略高于中性水平50，但远低于其移动平均线62.23。这一读数表明，此前的上涨动能已经冷却，但并未将RSI推向看跌或超卖极端。

分析师观点：关键阻力位与长期展望

Cryptocurrency analyst Giannis Andreou pointed out in his weekly chart that $15 to $16 is the first major resistance area. He predicts that if the weekly close firm in the area and successfully backtested, the next focus will be on the resistance area of $20 to $23. In addition, he identified a historical resistance zone of $28 to $31, which is seen as a prerequisite for moving towards $40 and even the previous high of $53. However, these are only scenario assumptions and not firm price forecasts. In terms of lower support, Andreou pointed out that US$10 to US$12 is the key support, and a break below this range may further expose the early bottom area of US$7 to US$8.

At the same time, analyst Michaël van de Poppe takes a longer-term bullish view. He believes that LINK is still accumulating momentum as mature encryption protocols develop products with a real user base. He pointed out that this cycle will be completely different from previous cycles due to the establishment of "product-market fit."

On-chain data: Price increases deviate from address growth

Sanitation's latest online data reveals another side of LINK's recent rebound. Data showed that LINK rose from US$11.22 on September 1 to US$13.96 on October 6, an increase of about 24%. However, the number of new LINK addresses based on Ethereum has not increased at the same time.

In the first four weeks ending October 6, the average daily number of new LINK addresses was 1,249, an increase of less than 2% from the 1,225 in the previous four weeks. In contrast, Solana's new addresses increased by 33% during the same period (SOL prices increased by approximately 20%), while Ethereum's new addresses were basically flat (ETH prices increased by approximately 11%). It should be noted that Sanitation's data only covers LINK activity on the Ethereum main network, and tokens accessed through Chainlink CCIP bridges or through other investment products are not counted. As a result, these data only reflect partial network participation and cannot be determined whether total usage across all supported networks has increased.

Infrastructure upgrades: CCIP 2.0 and Fulcrum help institutions adopt

Despite weak price performance, Chainlink recently released a number of infrastructure products designed to serve financial institutions. On September 28, Chainlink launched CCIP 2.0, introducing optional tools that allow institutions and token issuers to configure verification and execution methods for cross-chain transfers. The upgrade includes a cross-chain validator, customizable fee structures, and built-in compliance features that remain fully final by default, while allowing agencies to choose execution and verification options based on needs.

In its collaboration with Swift, Chainlink stated that financial institutions can connect existing systems to Swift's blockchain ledger through the Chainlink runtime environment (CRE). The model allows institutions to retain control of transaction signing keys while coordinating the workflow between the banking system and Swift ledgers. According to reports, 17 banks on six continents are preparing to conduct real-time pilots using tokenized deposits.

In addition, Chainlink launched Fulcrum, an infrastructure for financing and collateral management across public and private blockchains on September 30. Fulcrum separates the management venue of financing agreements from the network of cash and collateral settlements, allowing participants to select collateral, set financing terms and coordinate cross-chain settlements through a common gateway. Chainlink emphasized that Fulcrum does not manage assets and does not operate as a counterparty or trading platform. At the Sibos 2026 conference, Chainlink and DTCC demonstrated a demonstration of cross-chain securities financing transactions using the system.

Overall, LINK's technical form makes US$15 -16 the primary resistance area, while the lower Bollinger Bulls provide support around US$12. If prices fall below that level, analysts point to a broader support range of $10 -12.