XRP price forecast: $1.4445 and delayed XRPN market debut-key points worthy of attention at present

XRP Price Analysis: Key calendar events in October dominate the market

On Wednesday afternoon, XRP prices were US$1.4445, down 4.4% from 24 hours ago. It is 1.2933 euros in euros. Investors seeking XRP price forecasts this week should spend less time on chart technical analysis and focus more on key dates on the calendar. There are three important dates in the next seven days, and each date is verifiable for German investors.

Friday, October 9: The merger to create the listed XRP treasury company Evernorth is expected to be completed.
Monday, October 12: Its shares begin trading on Nasdaq.
Same day and after: The Bundestag Petition Committee will deal with the case regarding retaining the tax holding period for cryptocurrency assets on Monday; two days later, on October 14, the Federal Cabinet will consider a draft bill to cancel the holding period.

These three dates are the real core of the week. Prices are incidental to this process, not the cause. [TAG

As of Wednesday afternoon (October 7), the XRP was trading at $1.4445 a piece, down 4.4% in the previous session. The market cap is about $91.1 billion, and trading volume in the past 24 hours is about $2.27 billion. This makes XRP the fifth largest crypto asset by market cap. The circulation volume is 63.09 billion XRPs, while the maximum supply stipulated in the agreement is approximately 99.99 billion.

From a longer time perspective, daily declines seem more common. XRP has fallen 4.5% in the past seven days; it has risen 3.5% in the past thirty days. Compared with the level of a year ago, the current price is 51.3% lower and is still 60.4% far from the all-time high of US$3.65 set on July 17, 2025. A one-day decline of 4.4% is within this normal range of fluctuations.

Combined with the overall market background, Bitcoin fell 3.2% on the day, Ethereum fell 5.3%, and Solana fell 3.0%. XRP fluctuates with the market, not against the trend. If the daily decline is interpreted as a unique weakness of XRP, it is actually blaming XRP for the results after measuring the overall performance of the market.

XRPN on Nasdaq: The first day of trading has been postponed to October 12

Evernorth Holdings is merging with listed shell company Armada Acquisition Corp. II, which will be traded on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol XRPN. The original planned merger was completed on October 7, and the first trading day was October 8. Both dates have been postponed. According to crypto.news, the merger is expected to be completed on Friday, October 9 due to administrative steps that hinder settlement, and the transaction debut is scheduled for Monday, October 12.

Brief definition: "Digital asset treasury" refers to a listed company whose business purpose is to hold specific crypto assets. Buying its shares is not the same as buying XRP directly, but buying equity in a company that holds XRP. This may seem like a subtle difference, but it is a decisive difference in tax treatment, which will be explained below.

Both dates remain subject to regular delivery conditions and Nasdaq listing requirements. The four-day delay is not a failure, but it is not an insignificant detail: Anyone who originally viewed October 8 as a price driver now needs to adjust calendar expectations.

Evernorth's treasury holds 473 million XRPs, with an entry price of US$2.54 for early investors.

After the merger is completed, Evernorth is expected to hold approximately 473 million XRPs. At Wednesday afternoon prices, the value is about $684 million. The company said it has raised more than $1 billion, including $214 million subscribed by early investors at $2.54 each. Compared with the current price of $1.4445, these subscribers are currently at a floating loss.

Shareholders of the listed shell company approved the transaction on September 30: 20,514,034 votes in favor, 1,362,081 votes against, and 930 abstentions. The approval result was clear, but the subsequent timetable did not advance as scheduled. cryptoticker.io detailed the process of hoarding 473 million XRPs in an article in early October.

The most critical point about the price issue is that as long as the company holds these assets, this part of the supply will be separated from market circulation. In theory, this would tighten freely flowing supply by about 0.75%. This impact is measurable, but it is not a supply crisis, and it cannot be inferred that prices will inevitably rise.

Petition Committee hearing on October 12: 44,439 people signed in support of retention period

On the same day as the XRPN was first traded (Monday), the Bundestag Petition Committee will meet publicly in Berlin. Starting at 12 noon, the agenda includes a petition titled "Retain tax holding period for private disposal of cryptocurrency assets." The meeting will last until 2 p.m. in Room 3.101 in Marie-Elisabeth-Lüders-Haus and will be broadcast live online. Interested in on-site participants must register with the Committee Secretariat before 12 noon on October 9.

The petition was initiated by ProHaltefrist promoter Nicole Nowak, and according to BTC-Echo, 44,439 people have signed it. Fritz Güntzler, fiscal policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group, said: "There is no agreement in the coalition agreement to tighten cryptocurrency taxes." The agenda and process of the hearing are detailed in the relevant article published by cryptoticker on October 6.

It should be noted that hearings by the petition committee will not directly change the law. The committee does not bind the federal government and cannot block established procedures. The significance of the hearing is to attract public attention while the process is still in progress.

Cabinet Meeting on October 14: Review of a Bill to Tax Cryptocurrency Assets in Private Wealth

Two days after the hearing, the federal cabinet is expected to review a bill submitted by the Treasury Department titled "Act to Reform the Taxation of Certain Cryptocurrency Assets in Private Wealth." The consultation period for industry organizations ends on October 6. Core content of the bill: Future cryptocurrency gains will be classified as investment income under Section 20 of the Income Tax Act, rather than private disposal gains under Section 23.

The Cabinet decision has not yet become law. Next comes the legislative process in the Bundestag and Bundesrat, where bills may be revised, postponed or rejected. To expect a final legal decision on October 14 would be to misunderstand the nature of the incident.

The grandfather clause ends on December 31, 2026, and Article 20 of the Income Tax Law will apply from 2027.

The bill stipulates the deadline, which is also the number that every German XRP holder is most concerned about this week. Cryptocurrency assets acquired before January 1, 2027 will continue to be subject to current laws. Assets purchased from January 1, 2027 will be subject to the new system, and withholding investment income tax will be collected from January 1, 2028.

Current legal mechanism: Under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act, the proceeds of the sale of cryptocurrency assets are exempt from tax if the interval between purchase and sale exceeds one year. For one year, all private disposals enjoy a total tax exemption of € 1,000. Note that tax exemptions are not deductions: once more than 1 euro, all income will be taxed at the personal income tax rate.

Proposed new system: There will no longer be a holding period. Proceeds will be levied as investment income with a 25% withholding tax, plus a 5.5% solidarity surcharge, for a total of 26.375%. If you need to pay church taxes, the tax rate will be higher. In exchange, a savings tax exemption (Sparr-Pauschbetrag) of € 1,000 will apply and losses can be offset within investment income. For a comparison of tools on how to clearly record the date of acquisition, please see Comparison of Relevant Cryptocurrency Software.

对 XRP 的实际影响： 所有在 2026 年内结算的购买均适用法案中的祖父条款。2027 年 1 月起的购买则不适用。在这两个世界之间，同一笔收益要么面临 26.375% 的税款，要么为零，取决于是否遵守一年持有期。因此，对德国持有者而言，2026 年 12 月 31 日感觉像是一个市场关键日期。

XRP 直接购买还是 XRPN 股票：两种买入路径，两种税务规则

从 10 月 12 日起，对 XRP 感兴趣的投资者有两条不同的路径，且在税务处理上截然不同。

• 直接购买 XRP： 自行控制并持有，目前适用《所得税法》第 23 条，包含一年持有期和 1,000 欧元免税额。
• 通过经纪人购买 XRPN 股票： 持有美国证券。其价格增值被视为《所得税法》第 20 条下的投资收入，无论持有期长短，均按 26.375% 征税，作为交换享有 1,000 欧元储蓄者免税额。

对于股票，该规则今日即已适用；对于 XRP 本身，仅当法案成为法律且购买发生在截止日后才适用。那些本就不打算持有 XRP 满一年的投资者，在税务上选择股票并无太大损失。而那些打算长期持有 XRP 的人，通过购买股票则放弃了一项证券本身从未提供过的优势。

There are also differences that have nothing to do with taxation. Stocks do not track XRP prices one-on-one: listed crypto treasuries may trade at a price higher or lower than the value of their positions, with cost, management and corporate risks involved. Stocks, on the other hand, do not require wallets, backups or mnemonics. Which path is appropriate depends on the holding period and individual portfolio, rather than the price of a given day. The choice of escrow accounts depends on the broker and its access to the U.S. market.

MiCA-based purchase path: CASP authorization and BaFin registration

With the full application of the European Crypto Asset Markets Regulation (MiCA), any service provider trading, hosting or redemption of crypto assets for customers in the EU will need to obtain a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) authorization. In Germany, BaFin (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority) is responsible for granting and supervising this license.

This means that when purchasing XRP, you can check whether the provider appears in BaFin's register or the European register maintained by European ESMA, and the legal form it operates in Germany. The inspection takes only two minutes, but determines whether German regulatory laws apply in the dispute. For details on which platforms have authorizations and their order fees, please refer to the comparison of the best cryptocurrency exchanges.

Fees are still the second lever. The difference in the spread from 0.1% to 1.5% per purchase is € 14 in the order of € 1,000, and this cost is repeated every time the position is increased. At a price of $1.4445 per XRP, this is more decisive than one-day price fluctuations.

Custody and Pledge: XRP No Agreed Revenue

XRP Ledger has no pledge in the sense of proof of stake. There are no negotiated rewards paid to holders in exchange for holding because the network reaches consensus through a validator list rather than through capital pledges. Any institution that offers double-digit XRP yields, its revenue comes from the provider rather than the network.

This is not a reason against such offers, but it changes the nature of the risk. When you own the agreement benefits, you bear the network risk; when you have the provider's quote, you bear the provider's risk. There is also a tax side effect: Anyone who wants to use crypto assets to earn income should better resolve the tax impact of the holding period before the funds are locked in.

Custody also needs to be sober. Keeping XRP on an exchange means you hold claims on the exchange; holding it yourself means you risk backing it up. Both have their own rationality, but only self-holding can survive the provider's bankruptcy.

Leverage and Liquidation: Under five-fold leverage, the zero line is at $1.1560.

Using five-fold leverage at the current entry price of $1.4445, the margin is mathematically exhausted after falling by 20%, falling to $1.1560. That value is below a 30-day low of $1.2833, meaning a liquidation here would need to hit a new low in the past four weeks.

With ten-fold leverage, the distance will be halved to 10%, or $1.3001, which is already above the 30-day low. A one-day drop of 4.4% like the one on October 7 almost ate up half of the margin of safety. Fees, capital costs and slip points have not been included in this calculation.

Support and resistance levels: $1.4445,$1.2833,$1.5419 and $1.5713

The following four values are derived from our analysis of CoinGecko's last 7-day and 30-day price series (169 hourly data and 31 daily data). cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis on October 7, 2026.

Downward direction: The current price of US$1.4445 is right at a low of the past seven days. If it breaks below, the next record level will be a 30-day low of $1.2833, or a low of about 11%. Between these two values, data from the past four weeks cannot justify the existence of another reasonable interval.

Upward direction: The high of the past seven days is US$1.5419, about 6.7% above current levels. Above it is a 30-day high of $1.5713. Only by breaking this mark will the sideways range in recent weeks be truly broken.

These levels are not price targets. They are the point of decision-making in recent weeks, and therefore constitute a better honest framework for the next few days than any unverifiable number. Three dates, October 9, 12 and 14, are events this week that could break that framework.

XRP Price Forecast: Key Points for Your Decision

Check Deadlines before Calendar is Determined:
Under the bill, every XRP purchased before January 1, 2027 will be subject to the existing one-year holding period. Anyone planning to buy should deliberately set and record the purchase date. For details on where to buy, how much it costs, and under which authorization, please refer to the comparison of the best cryptocurrency exchanges.

Carefully choose the buying path:
Buying XRP directly and buying XRPN shares are two different products, corresponding to two different tax rules, and the two are not in step. Investors who want to weigh these two paths can find information on custody accounts in the comparison of best cryptocurrency brokers.

Establish custody solutions when there is no fire:
XRP does not pay agreement benefits, so custody becomes a decision with lasting impact. For which devices and programs are suitable for this purpose, see Hardware Wallet Comparison.

(As of October 7, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)