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BTC 
ETH CEO of prediction market platform Polymarket: Crypto trading is evolving into a game of "irrational prosperity"
According to Shayne Coplan, CEO of prediction market platform Polymarket, cryptocurrency trading is gradually evolving into a game of "irrational prosperity" as traders compete to become the earliest investors looking for the next hundredfold token.
"People think they are buying something valuable, but in reality they are buying something worthless. But they are still buying because they want prices to increase a hundred times before they return to zero." Coplan pointed out in a dialogue at the Token2049 summit held in Singapore on Wednesday.
Coplan said that some traders can indeed make huge fortunes through this strategy, but added that it is essentially a game of "irrational prosperity and hot potato" and that any rising asset prices will inevitably fall back eventually.
In his 2000 book "Irrational Prosperity", Nobel Prize winner Robert Schiller explored in depth how optimism spreads through psychology, social dynamics and feedback effects. Similarly, some cryptocurrency traders are attracted by the temptation to get rich quick and devote themselves to this asset class, but finding the next successful altcoin in the market is not easy.
Previously, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes had suggested that the altcoin season never really ended, but many traders missed out on most of the major winners this cycle.
The rise of Polymarket: Traders seek more certain odds
Coplan pointed out that the continued growth in Polymarket users suggests that some traders are turning to looking for betting opportunities with more predictable odds rather than blindly chasing the next large cryptocurrency project.
"When trading these markets on Polymarket, there are no exponential upside gains." Coplan explained. He added that informed traders still continue to participate in such bets to place predictable odds on future events.
According to DefiLlama data, Polymarket has become the world's second-largest forecast market, with forecast trading volume reaching US$1.21 billion in the past seven days. In comparison, Kalshi, the largest market, recorded US$2.3 billion in trading volume during the same period.
Despite the competition, a report released by 10x Research in December concluded that the forecast market is becoming a new battlefield for the crypto economy. Data-driven "elite" traders profit from information asymmetry and price spreads created by retail investors seeking quick profits.
Increased regulatory pressure
Predicting market growth has also triggered increasing scrutiny from U.S. regulators. According to reports, JPMorgan Chase terminated its banking partnership with Polymarket on August 14 due to compliance issues, but said the bank remains interested in a potential underwriting role if Polymarket seeks to go public.
In addition, more than a dozen states in the United States have filed legal proceedings against Polymarket or Kalshi, alleging that they are involved in sports event contracts; at the same time, authorities in many countries have also blocked or restricted access to the Polymarket platform.
