Chain prices approach $13.20, new LINK addresses lag behind

Core Points

LINK prices have fallen below US$13.80 and are currently testing the US$13.10 -13.30 support area. Sanitation data shows that while LINK prices have increased by 24%, the average number of new LINK addresses per day has increased by less than 2%. The first deep support cluster is located around $12.40-$12.65. LINK needs to recover the US$13.75 -14.00 range to relieve short-term structural pressure.

US$13.20 became LINK's immediate test target.

At 11:48 UTC on October 7, LINK traded at approximately US$13.36, down 4.28% within the day. The decline has brought prices back to the area where they broke through early resistance in the early stages of the September rally. Based on the Fibonacci retracement range from a September low of $10.60 to an end-September high of $15.70, the 0.382 retracement level is at $13.80. Although the lower shadow line has previously crossed this level, LINK has closed near or above this level in recent trading days. The latest market trend has left $13.80 behind, so it becomes particularly important for buyers to hold on to the next support band.

The support band ranges from US$13.10 to US$13.30, with the center of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately US$13.19. LINK's lowest price of $13.23 has hit that area. Prices paused in this range in September and then continued to rise, while a retracement in early October also drew buyers back into the neighborhood. These early market reactions gave the region deeper meaning than simply calculated retracement levels. As explained in Fidelity's guide on support and resistance, when buyers continue to accept higher prices after a breakthrough, previous resistance levels can be transformed into support. Daily closing prices and subsequent trading sessions will show whether this role is still valid.

As prices fall, momentum is weakening. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is close to 51, below its smooth line of 62, and LINK has fallen below the steeply rising trend line. These indicators suggest that as prices reach their first important support test point, the foundation for the latest rally is not solid.

New LINK addresses barely grew during the rise.

Sanitation reported that LINK rose from US$11.22 to US$13.96, an increase of approximately 24%. In the first four weeks ending October 6, the average daily number of new LINK addresses reached 1,249, compared with 1,225 in the first four weeks ending September 1-an increase of less than 2%.

因此，价格的上涨并未伴随以太坊主网上首次参与者的相应扩张。这并不意味着 LINK 缺乏需求。现有持有者、大型钱包、交易所活动以及以太坊以外的交易都可以影响价格，而无需产生大量新的 LINK 地址增长。Santiment 的网络增长指标统计的是首次转移 LINK 的地址数量，而非独特的投资者或其购买价值。其数据系列涵盖以太坊主网，并排除跨链活动和 ETF exposure。此外，Chainlink 的情况较为特殊：其对预言机服务的需求可以通过集成增长，而不一定导致首次代币转账量的同步上升。

地址数据无法决定 13.20 美元是否能守住，但它为回调提供了背景信息。LINK 正在测试突破区域，而此前的上涨并未带来相同规模的首次主网地址增长，这使得支撑位处的价格行为比单纯的 headline gain（主要涨幅）更为重要。

13.20 美元下方的支撑地图

如果 LINK 收盘价低于 13.10-13.30 美元区域且未能重新夺回，图表显示了三个需要关注的较低支撑区：

• 12.40-12.65 美元：约 12.58 美元的 0.618 斐波那契回撤位、约 12.40 美元的上升 50 日简单移动平均线（SMA）以及九月的价格反应在此重叠。
• 11.60-11.85 美元: The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of around $11.71 and the earlier September consolidation area (an earlier consolidation area in September).
• US$10.35 -10.65 : A September swing low of about US$10.61 and a 100-day SMA of about US$10.36.

Entering the first lower cluster will slow the recovery, but the overall structure will remain intact as long as LINK remains above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages. These moving averages are well below current prices and therefore have limited role in deciding the immediate battle over $13.20.

LINK needs to recover US$13.80 to confirm that the pullback is under control

LINK needs to recover US$13.75 -14.00 and hold steady before buyers can demonstrate that the pullback has been absorbed. This rebound will bring the $14.20 -14.60 range into view, where recent lower highs in the region overlap with the 0.236 retracement level of around $14.5. The greater resistance ceiling is between $15.40 and $15.70.

During subsequent recovery, a clearer increase in LINK address activity for the first time will provide a useful secondary check to verify its strength. Until then, the market's immediate answer was $13.10 -13.30: holding this range would preserve the September breakout platform, while losing it would widen the pullback towards lower support clusters.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Technical levels and network indicators may change rapidly and do not guarantee future price trends.