Bitcoin's price dropped by more than 2% today, breaking below the $82,000 mark.
Due to higher-than-expected inflation data in the United States, risk assets are facing new pressures. Today, the price of Bitcoin fell by approximately 2%, hitting below the $82,000 mark; Ethereum suffered even heavier losses, with its price dropping by about 4%, reaching below $2,450.
The trigger for these market fluctuations was the latest consumer price index (CPI) report released by the United States. The data showed that consumer prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month in September, and by 3.7% year-on-year. This figure was slightly higher than the market’s expected annual growth rate of 3.6%. This data immediately brought interest rates back into focus.
High inflation makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to implement loose monetary policies. If inflation continues to remain high, investors may expect interest rates to remain high for a longer period, and there could even be a possibility of further rate increases. This would lead to higher yields on U.S. government bonds and a weaker dollar. Both of these factors typically have a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market.
Since digital assets like Bitcoin cannot provide guaranteed returns, high-return risk-free assets such as government bonds become less attractive to speculative investments. Additionally, tighter financial conditions would reduce the amount of capital flowing into speculative markets. This is why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies reacted negatively to today’s CPI data.
Cryptocurrencies performed better than gold and silver.
In today's market reactions, there is one detail that deserves attention: Bitcoin fell by approximately 2%, while precious metals performed much worse. The price of gold dropped to around $4,100, and silver prices fell from around $60 to around $56. In contrast, the crypto market demonstrated remarkable resilience. Since the release of CPI data, gold has fallen by 1.6%, silver by 3.4%, the NASDAQ index fell by 0.72%, and Bitcoin only fell by 1.5%. In terms of percentage changes, Bitcoin's performance was almost on par with that of gold. However, when comparing market capitalization, the difference is significant: gold has a market capitalization of approximately $28.7 trillion, silver around $3.2 trillion, while Bitcoin's market capitalization is only about $1.7 trillion. Although Bitcoin's market capitalization is only 1/17 that of gold and half that of silver, its resistance to declines is superior to both. In the case of silver, the decline was approximately 6.7%. Therefore, although the crypto market is clearly under pressure, Bitcoin remains relatively stable compared to traditional inflation-resistant assets. While this does not guarantee that crypto assets will continue to outperform the broader market as yields rise, today's relative performance is worth keeping an eye on. Claude AI predicts that Bitcoin's potential bottom is nearing $78,000. Earlier this month, we asked Claude AI to assess Bitcoin based on the macroeconomic environment surrounding the October FOMC meeting. His baseline scenario predicts that, in the week after the October FOMC meeting, the price of BTC will range between $78,000 and $88,000.Currently, Bitcoin is approaching the lower limit of this range, but it has not yet reached it. At $82,000, BTC still needs to fall by approximately 4.9% to reach $78,000. However, this does not mean that $78,000 is a definite support level. The range suggested by Claude is based on model scenarios generated using the information available at that time, and not on statistically validated predictions.
Nevertheless, if Bitcoin continues to decline, the $78,000 range will become an important point of attention, in comparison with the scenario analysis provided by AI models.

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