A new super cycle has begun? Fidelity's outlook for the cryptocurrency market in 2026

随着比特币减半效应被反复讨论、现货ETF和机构资金深度参与市场，曾经清晰的“四年周期”正在被重新检验。链上数据显示，长期持有者与短线资金的行为分化加剧，价格波动节奏也不再完全围绕减半展开。在2026年这个被视为结构性转折点的年份，投资者面临的核心问题已不只是“涨还是跌”，而是该继续持有，还是在新的周期逻辑下选择退出。四年周期是否仍然有效，正成为影响下一步决策的关键分歧。

会有更多国家采用加密货币储备吗?

目前世界上许多国家都持有一定数量的加密货币，但很少有国家正式建立加密货币储备—即将其持有的加密货币指定为服务于国家利益战略的金融资产。

这种情况在2025年开始改变(最显著的例子是特朗普总统3月的行政命令)，并可能在2026年持续推进。

例如，9月，吉尔吉斯斯坦通过了一项法案，建立自己的加密货币储备。在其他地方，更多国家开始探索这种可能性。巴西国会近期推进了一项法案，允许该国国际储备的最多5%用于持有比特币(不过该法案是否会成为法律仍有待观察)。

「富达数字资产认为，未来可能会有更多国家购买比特币，这是出于博弈论，」富达数字资产研究副总裁克里斯·奎珀(Chris Kuiper)表示，「如果有更多国家将比特币作为其外汇储备的一部分，那么其他国家也可能感受到竞争压力，从而增加采取同样做法的压力。」

这对价格意味着什么?「从简单的供需经济学角度来看，比特币的任何额外需求都可能推高价格，」奎珀说，「当然，关键在于增量需求有多大，以及其他投资者是在卖出还是持有。」

企业会继续购买加密货币吗?

政府并非2026年新需求的唯一潜在来源。企业可能会越来越多地参与其中—其中一些企业在2025年开始将比特币及其他加密货币纳入其资产负债表。截至目前，最受关注的例子之一是软件和分析公司Strategy(前身为MicroStrategy，股票代码MSTR)，该公司自2020年以来一直在稳步购买比特币。然而，今年有更多公司采取了这种做法，使其成为一股趋势。截至11月，已有远超100家上市公司(包括国内和国际公司)持有加密货币。其中约50家公司目前持有超过100万枚比特币。

“There are clearly opportunities for arbitrage. Some companies can use their market position or financing channels to raise funds and use those funds to purchase Bitcoin,” said Quipper. “Some of these opportunities stem from investment mandates, as well as geographical and regulatory factors. For example, investors who cannot directly purchase Bitcoin may choose to obtain access to Bitcoin through these companies or the securities they issue.” On the surface, companies purchasing cryptocurrencies would increase market demand, which could help drive up asset prices. However, investors should also be aware of the risks involved. “If these companies choose to sell part of their digital assets—for example, during a bear market—this could certainly put pressure on the prices of the Bitcoin or other digital assets they hold,” said Quipper.

On the surface, it seems that companies purchasing cryptocurrencies would increase market demand, which could help drive up asset prices. But investors should also be aware of the risks involved. “If these companies choose to sell part of their digital assets—for example, during a bear market—this could certainly put pressure on the prices of the Bitcoin or other digital assets they hold,” said Quipper.

Source: Fidelity Investments. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Will the four-year cycle end?

Compared to traditional investments like stocks and bonds, Bitcoin’s history is relatively short, but its price has generally followed a four-year cycle—from peak to peak during bull markets, or from bottom to bottom during bear markets. Bitcoin reached its bull market peaks in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, while its bear market bottoms occurred in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. These cycles were accompanied by significant price fluctuations: the first cycle saw the price drop from $1,150 to $152, the second from $19,800 to $3,200, and the third from $69,000 to $15,500.

The movement of Bitcoin often drives the entire cryptocurrency market along—in many cases, with even more dramatic fluctuations.

Currently, we are at the fourth year of this cycle, as the previous bull market reached its peak in November 2021. Over the past month, cryptocurrency prices have continued to decline. So, has this bull market already peaked?

If the four-year cycle repeats, it’s possible that we are nearing the end of this Bitcoin bull market. However, some cryptocurrency investors believe that this historical trend is about to end, and the current price correction is merely a temporary pullback before the market resumes an upward trend.

Specifically, what does this mean? Some investors believe that although there will still be price corrections, any decline will be much less volatile than in the past, and the extent of the decline might be so small that it doesn’t even qualify as a full bear market. Others think that we might be entering a supercycle, where the bull market will continue for many years. For reference, the commodity supercycle in the 2000s lasted nearly a decade.

Quipper doesn’t believe these cycles will completely disappear, as the fear and greed that trigger them don’t vanish overnight. But he points out that if the four-year cycle repeats, it would mean that we have already reached the historical high of this cycle, and we are now in a full bear market. Although the correction since November has been significant, he says we might not know whether a four-year cycle has indeed occurred until 2026. The current price drop could be the start of a new bear market, or it could just be another pullback within the bull market, with potential for another record high in the future—something we’ve seen several times during this cycle.

It remains to be seen whether these predictions will come true. We may not know for sure until the middle of 2026.

Is it still possible to buy Bitcoin now?

Although there are many uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market, one thing is clear: the crypto market is entering a new phase. “We see a complete shift in the structure and types of investors. I believe this trend will continue into 2026,” said Quipper. “Traditional fund managers and investors have started to buy Bitcoin and other digital assets. But I think we’re only scratching the surface when it comes to the amount of capital they might invest in this field.”

Given this, those who haven’t entered the market yet might wonder: Is it still a good time to buy Bitcoin now?

For Quipper, it depends on your investment horizon. If you want to make profits in the short or medium term (four to five years or less), then you might be too late, especially if this cycle follows historical patterns.

“However, from a very long-term perspective, I believe that if you view Bitcoin as a means of value storage, then there’s never really a ‘too late’ moment,” said Quipper. “As long as its hard-cap remains unchanged, I believe every purchase of Bitcoin is an opportunity to invest your labor or savings in something that won’t depreciate due to government monetary policies.”