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FollowingA researcher from Paradigm stated that due to “data errors,” some of the transaction activities and volumes reported by the prediction market platform Polymarket might be significantly higher than actual levels. “It turns out that almost all major data platforms have double-counted the volume of transactions that aren’t related to fake trades,” said Storm, a researcher at a venture capital firm.
Storm explained that this happens because Polymarket’s blockchain data includes redundant representations of each transaction.
“Polymarket’s blockchain data is quite complex, which has led to the widespread use of flawed accounting methods.”
When transactions occur on Polymarket, the system generates multiple “order completed” events: one for the market makers who placed orders, and another for those who executed the transactions.
These events represent different perspectives on the same transaction, not separate transactions. However, many mainstream data platforms combine these events together, resulting in the double-counting of the same volume of transactions.
Recently, due to the instability in both spot and derivatives markets, Polymarket has been seen as one of the few successful cases in the cryptocurrency industry. However, the discovery that its key metrics may be inaccurate across various dashboards could potentially affect its achievements.
Polymarket’s complex blockchain data
The researcher further explained that accounting errors “overstated two commonly used metrics in prediction markets: nominal transaction volume and cash flow transaction volume.”
“Polymarket的数据一直以来都令加密货币数据分析师感到困惑……这些数据具有太多层相互作用的复杂性，仅靠区块浏览器无法理清。”
这种复杂性源于Polymarket交易可以是简单的互换，也可以是“拆分”和“合并”，双方用现金交换相反的头寸。
研究人员表示，智能合约会发出冗余事件以进行跟踪，而标准的区块链浏览器并没有明确区分这一点。
Cointelegraph已联系Polymarket征求意见，但尚未收到回复。
使用不同指标衡量的多市场交易量。来源：Paradigm
Polymarket的估值为90亿美元
据报道，洲际交易所(ICE)本周将该预测平台的估值定为90亿美元，并援引了250亿美元的交易量，但这一数字现在可能受到质疑。
9月份有报道称，Polymarket正准备以100亿美元的估值进军美国市场。10月份，彭博社报道称，该公司正在寻求融资，估值在120亿至150亿美元之间。
与此同时，Dune Analytics报告称，该平台11月份的交易量创下37亿美元的月度纪录，但如果Paradigm的研究是正确的，那么这个数字可能是实际数字的两倍。
“DefiLlama、Allium、Blockworks和许多Dune控制面板都存在重复计数的问题，”该研究人员表示。
Researchers concluded, “Predictive markets are rapidly becoming an important sector in the financial industry. As this field continues to develop, the industry should strive towards consistent, transparent, and objective reporting standards.”
