渣打银行下调2030年稳定币规模预测至2万亿美元

Standard Chartered Bank has postponed the target date for achieving a stablecoin market value of $2 trillion to 2030

According to the latest outlook report released by Standard Chartered Bank, due to the stagnation in the growth of stablecoin supply, the bank has adjusted its forecast timeline for reaching this milestone. The target date has been pushed back to 2030. This revision does not mean that the long-term forecast itself is withdrawn; rather, it indicates that the timeline for achieving this ambitious goal has been extended. This also makes short-term supply expansion a key factor in determining whether the bank’s forecasts can be achieved, thereby prompting market re-evaluations.

The timeline for achieving the target has been extended

Based on the updated forecast data, Standard Chartered Bank has set the target date for achieving a total market value of $2 trillion at 2030. These $2 trillion represent expectations for future market size, not the current level of supply. This revision only adjusts the timeline, while the final target remains unchanged.

Standard Chartered Bank’s decision to extend the timeline comes at a time when the total supply of stablecoins is not growing at the rate expected earlier. “Supply growth” refers to an increase in the total amount of stablecoins issued by all issuers and circulating on blockchain networks. This is the main variable connecting the current market situation with long-term market value targets. When supply expansion is slow, forecasts based on faster growth rates require a longer period of time to achieve the target.

Standard Chartered Bank's extensive research department on digital assets has always been one of the most active voices in the field of stablecoin infrastructure. Although its timeline for predicting market size is somewhat longer, the bank recently joined forces with Ripple and LMAX to enter the RLUSD custody service. This indicates that the bank continues to be committed to the stablecoin sector at a operational level.

Why the slowdown in the growth of stablecoin supply is crucial

What is measured by the growth of stablecoin supply?

The growth of stablecoin supply measures the net increase in actively circulating stablecoins among various issuers, including Tether, Circle, and emerging participants. When issuers create new stablecoins in response to demand, the total supply increases; when redeems exceed issuance, the supply decreases or stagnates. Predictions regarding specific market value targets implicitly assume that there is a sufficient supply expansion path within a given period.

A slowdown in supply growth will slow down the pace at which the overall market approaches its long-term goals. Even if the structured demand for stablecoins remains unchanged, this will extend the timeline. Standard Chartered Bank’s target setting for 2030 reflects this logic: the same destination can be reached more slowly, requiring more calendar time. Cross-chain real-time tracking of stablecoin supply data provides a glimpse into the overall picture supporting these predictions.

The legislative progress regarding stablecoin frameworks, including the ongoing debate in the Senate over how the GENIUS bill should handle state-level authority over stablecoins, could affect the speed at which new issuers can introduce new supplies into the market. However, the revisions made by Standard Chartered Bank do not attribute this delay to a single cause.

What does the delayed forecast mean for the stablecoin market?

Is the prediction of $2 trillion in stablecoins still valid?

Based on current information, Standard Chartered Bank has postponed rather than abandoned this prediction. The revised timeline indicates that the conditions necessary to achieve this goal have not met as expected; however, this does not mean that the bank believes the goal is impossible to achieve. Such predictions are updated as supply trends change. The 2030 timeline provides the market with approximately four years extra to bridge the gap.

What should readers pay attention to next?

The key variable that needs monitoring is whether the total supply of stablecoins will resume its growth trajectory, thereby ensuring that $2 trillion in stablecoins are achieved by 2030. Secondary indicators include the pace of adoption by institutions, the regulatory environment for new issuers, and whether there will be significant corporate or sovereign usage cases that drive demand for stablecoins. Options for storing and using stablecoins are constantly expanding. Self-managed stablecoin wallets like USDT, USDC, and DAI are becoming more common, reflecting the needs of retail and institutional investors. If issuers respond accordingly, this will drive growth on the supply side.

Key points in Standard Chartered Bank’s revised outlook for stablecoins

Standard Chartered Bank's forecast regarding the stablecoin market worth $2 trillion has been postponed to 2030. The stagnation in supply growth is cited as the reason for the revised timeline. The figure of $2 trillion remains the bank's expected target; only the date has changed. Whether this forecast will come true depends on whether the total supply of stablecoins can resume the growth trajectory anticipated in the original timeline. Therefore, data on supply levels over the next 12 to 24 months will be crucial in evaluating the bank's arguments.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is Standard Chartered Bank's forecast for the stablecoin market in 2030?

According to Standard Chartered Bank's revised outlook, the total market value of stablecoins is expected to reach $2 trillion by 2030. This is a revised version of the previous forecast, which had set the same milestone at an earlier time frame.

Why was the forecast of $2 trillion in stablecoins postponed to 2030?

The bank indicates that the stagnation in supply growth is the background behind the revised timeline. Since market size forecasts depend on supply expansion, longer periods are required to achieve the same goal when supply growth slows down.

Does the stagnation in supply growth mean that the number of stablecoins is decreasing?

Not necessarily. The stagnation in supply growth means that supply has not expanded at the rate predicted earlier. It does not mean that the total number of stablecoins in circulation is decreasing. This distinction is important for interpreting the revised forecast: a slower growth rate may extend the timeline, but it does not negate the overall trend.