Ripple: A legendary journey from peak to trough, and back to rebirth

瑞波币经历了从高峰跌入低谷，再到2025年重新受到关注的变化过程。影响它走势的关键，包括美国的CLARITY法案、监管机构(SEC)的态度变化，以及政策环境的调整。随着监管趋于明朗，市场对瑞波币的信心逐渐回升，也让投资者重新评估它在全球加密生态中的位置。总体来说，瑞波币未来的发展潜力再次被市场看到。

瑞波币：从巅峰到谷底再到重生的传奇旅程

1. 瑞波币的崛起与监管困境：为何分类至关重要

瑞波币由Ripple Labs于2012年推出，旨在通过其账本实现低成本、高效的跨境支付。2018年，瑞波币的市值飙升至1500亿，使其成为仅次于比特币的全球第二大加密货币，MoneyGram等合作伙伴凸显了其实际价值。

然而，作为一种新兴资产类别，加密货币缺乏专门的监管，必须在现有类别中被归类为证券或商品，模糊的定义直接决定了瑞波币的命运。

证券标签意味着严格的证券交易委员会监管、高合规成本和流动性风险(例如从交易所下架)，而商品标签则属于CFTC监管，监管更加宽松，并支持零售市场、ETF和创新应用。

Bitcoin and Ethereum were initially considered commodities due to their highly decentralized nature, benefiting from significant capital inflows resulting from ETF approvals. In contrast, Ripple was questioned by the Securities and Exchange Commission as a securities, due to its centralized structure. In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple for distributing $1.3 billion in “unregistered securities” through Ripple Coin, leading to its removal from exchanges like Coinbase. Ripple’s price plummeted by over 90%, falling from its second-place position in the world market. This controversy not only damaged Ripple but also hindered industry innovation. Although most countries have relatively lenient definitions of securities, requiring them to directly match existing categories to qualify, the SEC regulates the cryptocurrency industry based on traditional securities frameworks, which has sparked widespread criticism. The SEC’s standards for determining whether something is a security involve the Howey test, which considers an investment contract that promises returns as a security. Of course, this standard makes it difficult to apply directly to decentralized assets—bitcoin has no issuer, while Ripple is used for payments rather than for making profit promises. However, the SEC labeled mainstream currencies such as BNB.CC, SOL.CC, and Ripple as “unregistered securities,” leading to over 100 enforcement actions and creating a highly restrictive environment of “enforcement-based regulation.”对于瑞波币来说，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)2020年的诉讼是一次毁灭性的打击。SEC指控瑞波通过瑞波币进行非法融资，导致市场信心崩溃。瑞波币从第二大市值跌至边缘，交易所下架干涸了流动性，抑制了创新(例如减缓了ODL支付网络的扩展)。

瑞波币社区在X平台上表达了强烈的不满，认为SEC在扼杀美国本土的创新。

类似的压力影响了美国的概念币：ADA因基金会融资受到审查，XLM的支付功能被评估，SUI和LINK的DeFi应用面临合规压力，而HBAR的企业治理虽稳定，却受到了监管不确定性的影响。

3. 瑞波币的转折点与胜利：法律和解与CLARITY法案

瑞波币的复兴源于法律和立法的双重突破。核心争议是：SEC声称瑞波币是一种融资证券，而瑞波则坚持认为它是一种没有利润承诺的支付商品。在2023年，法官Analisa Torres作出了关键裁决：瑞波币在交易所的二级市场销售不构成证券，而是商品，但机构销售仍被视为证券，导致上诉。

在2025年初，瑞波与SEC达成初步和解：SEC放弃了对二级市场合法性的上诉，确认瑞波币在零售交易中的商品地位，瑞波支付了12500万美元的罚款(远低于要求的20亿美元)。这一和解消除了瑞波币的法律束缚。

Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act, which was passed by the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, clearly defines secondary sales of decentralized tokens and initial sales below a certain threshold as commodities, subject to CFTC regulation. This further demonstrates the legitimacy of Ripple. The act is currently pending approval in the Senate, and market reactions have been rapid: on July 17, Ripple’s trading volume exceeded $18 billion, with its price rising from $3.04 to $3.64, setting a new record high.

4. A new chapter for Ripple: Trump’s policies and opportunities for US-based cryptocurrencies

Ripple’s recovery is not only due to its own success but also benefits from Trump’s “America First” policy since he took office.

At the beginning of 2025, Trump signed the GENIUS Act, the first federal encryption law. This law established a framework for stablecoins and promoted national crypto reserves, clearly supporting local projects like Ripple. He even planned to establish strategic reserves of Ripple tokens.

He prohibited CBDCs and emphasized America’s leadership in the global crypto industry, stating that “American projects will dominate Web3.” The CLARITY Act is an extension of this policy, removing obstacles for Ripple and other US-based cryptocurrencies.

Short-term catalysts: Ripple has been re-listed on most exchanges. With the nearing approval of Ripple ETFs, its status as a commodity makes it highly likely to see a surge in interest. Analysts predict that Ripple’s price could exceed $5.5.

长期前景： 瑞波币的银行转账服务可能加速企业采用。美国概念币如ADA(学术驱动)、XLM(跨境支付)、SUI(高效区块链)、LINK(预言机服务)和HBAR(企业应用)将在明确的监管下加速发展，吸引机构投资，可能达到万亿美元的市值。

特朗普的政策影响： 通过国家储备(可能包括瑞波币)和针对外国竞争的措施，美国的加密货币项目将在全球占据主导地位。

然而，风险依然存在：市场波动、稳定币竞争(如USDC)以及可能影响进展的参议院修正案。X平台上的瑞波币社区乐观地预测：加密货币的总市值可能达到5万亿，瑞波币和美国概念币将引领以实用为导向的代币。

结论与投资展望

瑞波币的历史最高价3.64美元证明了它从全球第二大加密货币到低谷再到2025年复兴的历程。证券交易委员会的和解和《清晰法案》提供了明确的监管，而特朗普的“美国优先”政策通过《天才法案》和国家储备推动瑞波币和美国项目，如ADA、XLM、SUI、LINK和HBAR。

投资者应关注参议院的进展和瑞波币的技术面。这一激增验证了瑞波币在全球金融中的角色，预示着山寨币的反弹和美国在Web3中的主导地位。