BTC has risen back to $93,000: Four major macroeconomic signals indicate that the crypto market may

过去48小时，加密市场再次用一种近乎戏剧化的方式提醒所有人：在这里，“暴跌”与“牛回”永远只隔着一个交易日的距离。BTC强势反弹至9.3万美元附近，24小时涨幅接近7%;ETH重回3000美元上方;SOL也重新触及140美元。

美股开盘后，加密板块同样出现普涨态势。ETH财库公司BitMine股价24小时涨幅达到11.6%，BTC最大企业持有者Strategy股价24小时涨幅达到6.2%。

衍生品方面，过去24小时全网爆仓总金额达4.30亿美元，其中多单爆仓7千万美元，空单爆仓3.6亿美元，主爆空单，最大单笔爆仓单发生在Bybit-BTCUSD，其仓位价值1300万美元。

市场情绪方面，根据Alternative.me数据，今天加密货币恐慌与贪婪指数回升至28，虽然仍处于「恐慌」区间，但相比昨天的23(极度恐慌)，情绪已明显好转，市场正出现一丝回暖迹象。

资金流入情况，据sosovalue.com数据，BTC现货ETF在连续四周猛烈流出后，终于迎来连续四个交易日的小幅回流;ETH现货ETF则在五连入之后转为净流出7900万美元。整体来看，目前资金流入动能还是比较微弱。

Meanwhile, fake asset ETFs are accelerating their approval process due to policy incentives. ETFs related to XRP, SOL, LTC, DOGE, etc. are being launched frequently. Although the XRP ETF was launched later than the SOL ETF, its performance is actually much better. Its current net inflow has reached $824 million, surpassing that of the SOL ETF. In the short term, it has become a “major representative of fake assets” in the market.

On the surface, this surge in the crypto market seems to lack any significant positive factors. But in reality, forces beneath the surface are accumulating—from interest rate expectations to changes in liquidity, to rethinking institutional investment strategies. Each of these factors could influence market direction.

Prediction of reversal: Interest rate cuts in December are almost certain.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs’ Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, and Commodities Department believe that the Fed will definitely cut interest rates at its upcoming December meeting. Bank of America’s Global Research Department also believes that, given the weak labor market conditions and recent hints from policymakers about potential early interest rate cuts, the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting. Previously, the bank expected the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the December meeting. At the same time, the bank predicts further rate cuts of 25 basis points in June and July 2026, with the final interest rate falling to the range of 3.00%-3.25%.

Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed next week has risen to 93%. The total trading volume of this prediction pool reaches $300 million.

Shift in liquidity: The end of QT and a $13.5 billion injection of funds.

The more critical signals come from the operations of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Quantitative Tightening officially ended on December 1st. Prior to that, Quantitative Tightening recouped over $2.4 trillion in liquidity, helping to stabilize the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet at around $6.57 trillion. What’s more noteworthy is that on the same day, the Fed injected $13.5 billion into the market through overnight repurchase facilities. This represents the second-largest single-day capital injection since the outbreak of the pandemic, aimed at alleviating banks’ short-term funding pressures. However, this wasn’t a true quantitative easing measure; it was merely a temporary liquidity support measure. Over the past few years, traditional institutions such as Vanguard and Merrill Lynch have remained cautious about investing in crypto ETFs. This isn’t because they don’t understand the potential benefits of crypto investments, but rather because they prefer to avoid taking unnecessary risks. However, this situation is beginning to change this week, with Vanguard and Merrill announcing plans to expand access to crypto ETFs for their customers. Charles Schwab also plans to launch Bitcoin trading in the first half of 2026. What’s important is that traditional institutions always prefer to avoid pitfalls rather than risking losses. Their decision to relax restrictions isn’t a short-term move, but rather a long-term strategic shift. If these institutions allocate only 0.25% of their funds to Bitcoin, it would mean that there will be around $75 billion in additional buying activity over the next 12–24 months. Coupled with the easing of monetary conditions, 2026 could see strong growth in Bitcoin investments. One of the largest financial institutions in the United States, Bank of America, has already allowed wealth managers to recommend allocating 1%–4% of clients’ assets to crypto assets starting from January 2025. The first batch of recommended assets include IBIT, FBTC, BITB, and BTC. This means that Bitcoin has officially become part of the “standard options” list for traditional U.S. wealth management services. This move aligns Bank of America with other major wealth management platforms like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley. For Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, which have been slow to act, pressure from the industry is increasing rapidly.

Conclusion

此次行情的反弹并非来自单一利好，而更像是多条宏观线索在同一时间点的共振：降息预期明确、流动性回流、政治变量临近、资管巨头松动。而更重要的是，加密资产正在从“被允许交易”走向“被认可配置”，这将使得加密资产迈向更具持续性的资金推动周期。