Gold and Ethereum: Which one will reach $5,000 first? It’s a matter of speed versus certainty, isn’t

Recently, there has been an interesting “race” in the market: between gold and Ethereum. Both assets are aiming for a price of $5,000. On the prediction market Myriad, traders have already started placing bets. Currently, approximately 69.2% of the funds are allocated to the idea that Ethereum will reach this price first compared to gold.

That sounds quite bold, doesn’t it? After all, today (October 27th), the price of gold is around $4,042, which is closer to the target. Moreover, gold has just experienced its largest daily adjustment in over a decade.

So, why are crypto traders so optimistic? Technical analysis shows that both the upward trend of Ethereum and its popularity support this prediction. However, some warn that such bets also carry significant risks, as market fluctuations can be extremely volatile, potentially leading to disastrous results. In other words, this “race to see which asset reaches $5,000 first” is both exciting and uncertain, making people feel both excited and nervous at the same time.

Is the price of Ethereum on the verge of a major surge?

Yesterday, the closing price of Ethereum was $3,892, down by 2.3%. During the trading session, the price reached a high of $4,112. Currently, the trading price on October 26th evening is around $4,067. The weekly chart shows that Ethereum is in a classic consolidation pattern. All major technical indicators remain weak but positive. The average price over the past 50 weeks is higher than that of the past 200 weeks. These moving averages act as dynamic support levels. When the faster EMA crosses above the slower EMA, it indicates that traders expect the overall market to move upward in the long term.

The current average directional index, ADX, is 25.51. This value is just above the critical level of 25. ADX measures the strength of trends, without considering the direction of those trends. A value above 25 indicates that there is indeed a trend at work, rather than just random noise. This reading suggests a valid trend, although it is also weakening. It doesn’t indicate strong momentum in the upward direction, but it still shows that there is some support for the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 53.69, which is in the middle of the neutral range. When RSI exceeds 70, it usually triggers sell-offs among traders; when it falls below 30, it attracts buyers looking for bargains. When RSI is at 53, ETH isn’t either expanding or overbought—it’s in an ideal range where both directions are possible.

In terms of support and resistance, there are at least two scenarios to consider from a broader perspective. One optimistic scenario suggests that ETH might be undergoing a short-term correction, following a pattern of high-low points since April 2025. If this is true, then this support level could help ETH reach $5,000 by February 2026. Another pessimistic scenario suggests that Ethereum might be rebounding from resistance near the $5,000 level within a multi-year trend channel. In that case, the short-term support would become ineffective, and ETH could fall to around $2,000 next year.

A real-time check on the market value of Gold Ethereum

Here, predicting the market becomes interesting. The market value of gold is approximately 28 trillion dollars. But the value of Ethereum is less than 500 billion dollars. That’s a difference of 56 times. To drive up the price of gold, significant capital inflows are required, as we’re dealing with one of the most valuable assets in the world. Central banks, institutions, and sovereign wealth funds won’t act quickly. Ethereum could rise by 20% within two weeks due to retail enthusiasm and institutional FOMO. This happened between August 4th and 11th, when ETH prices increased from around $3200 to $3850.

Considering long-term trends, gold has been in a bull market since 2016, with a cumulative increase of about 350%. The growth is slow but steady, making it suitable for institutional investors. But what about Ethereum? It lost 80% of its value twice during the crypto winter in 2018 and 2022. However, after each decline, it recovered rapidly, rising by 3000% from its low point in 2020 to its peak in 2021. Moreover, its volatility is bidirectional.

黄金是全球的储备价值存储。在市场危机中，黄金不会崩溃—投资者逃向安全资产时，黄金往往会上涨。2008年金融危机、2020年疫情、地缘政治紧张—黄金在不确定中蓬勃发展。而以太坊，加密冬季是真实存在的。在预测方面，如果市场整体保持看涨，ETH预计明年初将达到5000美元。黄金看起来更为稳固，虽然增长较慢但更稳定。如果最乐观的支持得到尊重，黄金在通往5000美元的路上应该与以太坊不分伯仲。如果黄金降温并保持其多年的运动，它可能在2026年中期达到该标志。

速度与确定性的比较

对一般投资者来说，这是一个艰难的决策，毫无疑问，因为黄金需要的不仅仅是技术分析。而且在过去两年中，加密市场的性质发生了很大变化，这可能影响了每三个牛市年对应一个熊市年的历史模式。以太坊有可能在更快的时间内达到5000美元—如果牛市配置向上解决，可能在4至8周内。30%的涨幅在以太坊正常的波动范围内，而压缩模式表明即将发生大幅度变动。随着各式交易者赌注69.2%可能会将以太坊推升至4500美元，对近期牛市的信心显而易见。

But there’s a crucial “if” in this statement. If the macro conditions remain stable. If cryptocurrencies aren’t subjected to sudden regulatory pressures. If Bitcoin can maintain a support level above $100,000. If risk appetite doesn’t collapse during this period of increased fear among investors in the crypto market. Gold is more likely to reach $5,000 eventually, but it might take several months—a 20% increase would require mobilizing billions of dollars in capital. The betting on Ethereum in the Myriad market is essentially a bet on speed rather than certainty. It’s betting that Ethereum’s lower market value and higher volatility will allow it to reach $5,000 before gold does. Technical indicators support this idea; Ethereum is currently compressing and preparing to move forward, while gold has just experienced its largest single-day correction in 10 years. It will take some time for markets to adjust to this change.