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The total market value of altcoins rose 12% this week, which Ash Crypto pointed out may mark a breakthrough in the downward trend of the past two years. The rally comes as Bitcoin returns to $77,000 despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the CLARITY Act's setback in the Senate.
Ash Crypto said that it is too early to call the "altcoin season"; a breakthrough will be confirmed if the weekly close stands above the trend line, otherwise failure may cause the total market value of the altcoin to fall back to the range of US$160 billion to US$190 billion.
The altcoin market approaches key test
According to TradingView's OTHERS index data, the altcoin market has risen 11.52% in the past week, which is basically in line with the 12% increase mentioned in the title. These data add new weight to Ash Crypto's analysis released on September 18, which pointed out that the broader altcoin market is trying to break a downward trend that has lasted nearly two years.
When the post was posted, he pointed out that the total market value of altcoins rose by 10% during the week and described it as the first real breakthrough attempt in years.
Ash Crypto Altcoin Analysis| Source: X
This comparison is a core feature at present. The recent rally, while strong, comes after a long period of weakness. Ash Crypto focuses on the long-term chart structure and believes that the altcoin market is breaking through a trend line that has suppressed prices for nearly two years.
His analysis did not directly announce the entry of the "altcoin season." He said the sector is still well below its previous high of $451 billion, and there is a huge gap between the current market and its early peaks. For Ash Crypto, a breakthrough requires confirmation, not another sharp weekly rally.
The key condition he identified was that the weekly closing price must be above the trend line. According to his analysis, if this condition is not met, the altcoin market may fall back to the range of US$160 billion to US$190 billion.
Bitcoin market strength complicates the cycle
Ash Crypto pointed out that the altcoin market is also moving while Bitcoin recovers $77,000. He sees this strength as another major anomaly of the current situation. This move by Bitcoin occurred despite two developments he mentioned-the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate.
Ash Crypto believes that this combination makes the current rally eye-catching because traditional four-year crypto cycle analysis typically classifies 2026 as a bear market year. This cyclical comparison remains his interpretation of the market rather than confirmation of fundamental changes in the way the crypto cycle operates.
Basic price data draws more limited conclusions. The altcoin market is rising, with the OTHERS index recording double-digit growth over the past week. But its annual performance remains negative, suggesting that the broader recovery has not erased the damage caused by previous declines. Therefore, for traders following the altcoin market, the weekly close is far more significant than the magnitude of the latest jump itself.
如果收盘价高于长期运行的趋势线，将提供Ash Crypto所称的缺失确认。如果被拒绝，1600亿至1900亿美元的区间将再次成为目标。
目前的行情重燃了关于“山寨币季”的辩论，但Ash Crypto在突破尝试和确认的新阶段之间划清了界限。目前，山寨币市场仍处于这一测试阶段。
