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BTC 比特币分析师本杰明·考恩：市场走势“逆转”，宏观压力未如预期压制BTC
加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）指出，尽管面临宏观经济压力，比特币近期表现强劲，这与其预期不符。他认为，市场似乎已经“逆转”了既定的运行轨迹。
在最新的市场分析中，考恩表示，他原本预计能源价格上涨、债券收益率上升以及美元指数走强会对比特币及其他风险资产构成压力。然而，事实证明，比特币在这些宏观环境下展现出比预想中更强的韧性。考恩明确承认，比特币突破5月高点这一事实，使其此前的预测失效。
宏观环境呈现“倒挂”特征
考恩指出，当前的宏观基本面总体上仍支持其原有的理论框架。他注意到，能源价格的上涨推动了长期债券收益率的攀升，美国10年期国债收益率已达到5.1%。同时，美联储的政策利率仍低于市场预期。
考恩进一步分析称，美国2年期国债收益率已升至约4.9%，而美联储的政策利率维持在4%。这表明货币政策可能不足以有效控制通胀。在他看来，能源价格、债券收益率和美元指数的上升，确实对股票和贵金属构成了压力。
However, Bitcoin's performance is quite different, so Cowan describes the current environment as an "inverted" market state. He pointed out that the S & P 500 index has struggled to hit new highs in recent weeks, and gold and silver have also been under pressure from rising interest rates and a strong US dollar, but Bitcoin has shown surprisingly resistance to these same macro factors.
Technical patterns suggest that the market is regaining strength
One technical indicator Cowen is particularly concerned about is that Bitcoin trading is above its 50-week moving average. He mentioned that Bitcoin's "golden fork" pattern followed by a correction and then recovery process, similar to some past recovery cycles. Current technological structures suggest that markets may have regained strength.
Cowan believes that it is of great significance for Bitcoin to break through its May high. He pointed out that now that Bitcoin has reached a higher high here, even if there is a potential correction in the fourth quarter, market expectations need to be reassessed. Such a correction could lead to higher lows rather than falling below previous lows.
Cowen also admitted that Bitcoin's current rise proved his previous predictions wrong. He recalled that a few weeks ago he estimated the probability of Bitcoin hitting a bottom at only 35%, while putting the probability of a new bottom at 65%. But as Bitcoin breaks through May highs, those probabilities have shifted in favor of the bullish outlook.
Key Points and Future Outlook
However, Cowan does not believe the upward trend has been fully confirmed. He said that if Bitcoin continues to close above its current position, it will further strengthen the view that the bottom has passed. Conversely, if the weekly closing price falls below $83,000 again, it may trigger a new correction in the fourth quarter.
Cowen emphasized that even in the above scenarios, Bitcoin does not necessarily need to reach a new low. He noted that a potential correction could manifest as a "higher low" on long-term charts. In addition, Cowan also noted that Bitcoin continued to rise against the backdrop of a stronger dollar, which would normally put pressure on it under normal circumstances, but this time it did not happen. According to Cowen's analysis, market behavior may continue to deviate from the direction implied by macro indicators.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
