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BTC Lower edge of Bitcoin price test range: Will it stabilize and rebound or break down?
Although the overall trend remains sideways, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have fallen to the bottom of the latest trading range, just below $83,000. Should we be worried if BTC prices fall below the lower edge of the range? Does this mean that a top has been formed and a major correction may be in its early stages?
Breakthrough and rebound options on the lower edge of the channel
The 4-hour chart shows that BTC prices have previously broken through a trading channel upwards and are currently operating within a new trading range above. The central axis of the current channel clearly divides the upper and lower price trends. As the chart shows, the price once fell below the central axis, and since then the position has turned into resistance.
The key now is to see whether BTC prices can stabilize at the bottom of the channel and eventually rebound, or will continue to fall and re-test down the top of the larger channel. Technical indicators show that in the short to medium term time frame, BTC prices are oversold, so the possibility of a rebound is relatively high. However, if the bears win in this particular battle, the next strong level of support will be around $81,250 at the top of the channel.
Stochastic RSI may predict the risk of breaking positions
日线图为我们提供了更清晰的价格动态视角。虽然此处出现反弹的迹象似乎存在，但同时做好应对破位的准备才是最佳策略。
回顾历史走势，在指向 82,840 美元水平支撑位的上影线下方，存在一处价格密集区。若价格回落，该区域也将构成支撑，其位置大致与平行通道的顶部重合。在图表底部，随机相对强弱指数（Stochastic RSI）指标线看似即将跌破第一条趋势线。鉴于当日交易尚未结束，这一情况是否发生尚不确定。若确实发生跌破，下一个趋势支撑位将显著更低。如果指标线开始向该低位下行，则表明价格正在走弱，BTC 价格有可能重新进入更大的平行通道内。
宏观视角暗示反弹概率较高，但需密切关注债券收益率
我们是否过度解读了此次最新的回调？从宏观角度审视价格走势，实际上发生的事情仅是 BTC 价格突破了平行通道，随后价格回测了极其重要的 82,840 美元水平支撑位。这完全符合逻辑，也是技术分析的基础常识。
因此，即便出现快速的下影线探至通道顶部以确认突破，此处的反弹仍是更可能的结果。尽管我们承认未来某个时间点必然会出现一次较大的回调，但在未来两到三周内，大概率轨迹仍将向上。周线级别的相对强弱指数（RSI）走势似乎也支持这一论点。
另一方面，如果存在压制 BTC 再次发起上涨行情的看跌因素，那便是债券收益率。美国10年期国债收益率在周一早盘呈现突破态势。当前收益率为 5.223%，需警惕本周末收益率触及 5.3% 的风险。
