XRP (XRP) struggles at $1.36 despite record ETF interest-key support levels approaching

Core Points

Interpretation of Technical Indicators

On September 1, the XRP price hovered around US$1.37, down 1.38%. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields has put pressure on speculative assets and is the main reason for the pressure on their prices.

Spot ETF Fund Inflows

In the week ending August 28, the U.S. spot XRP ETF ushered in the largest weekly capital inflow since 2026, totaling US$110.49 million.

Market environment

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is approaching 4.80%, guiding the outflow of investment funds from the digital currency sector.

Price support

Once it falls below the US$1.34 mark, the XRP price may drop further to US$1.30; if the bearish momentum continues, it may fall to US$1.20.

Wave Theory Prediction

According to Elliott Wave Theory Prediction, after completing the correction, XRP may experience a third wave rise, with a target range of US$2.90 to US$3.10.

Market Dynamics and Price Analysis

On September 1, XRP prices fell 1.38% to close at US$1.3592, giving up some of the August gains. Strengthening U.S. Treasury yields have prompted funds to flow out of risky digital assets.

XRP prices climbed to US$1.69 in August, but then encountered resistance. Since then, prices have moved sideways within a narrow range of $1.35 to $1.40.

Despite the price correction, institutional investor interest in U.S. -listed spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains strong. In the seven days ended August 28, these investment vehicles attracted a total of $110.49 million in net capital inflows, the best performing weekly data so far in 2026.

As of August 31, the single-day capital inflow was US$5.64 million. Among them, Canary's XRPC product led the way with US$4.71 million in new capital, while Bitwise contributed approximately US$930,000.

Total positions across all ETFs climbed to US$1.45 billion, accounting for approximately 1.67% of XRP's total market value (approximately US$85 billion). Bitwise manages the largest assets at $507.23 million, followed by Franklin's $370.02 million and Canary's $341.6 million.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to around 4.80%, the highest level since January 2025. An increase in fixed-income returns typically diverts funds from the cryptocurrency market as risk-adjusted returns become less attractive.

Market analyst XRP Update pointed out on platform X that XRP "has little room for maneuver" and observed that the 4-hour chart showed prices contracting between support around $1.35 and downward resistance around $1.40. The analyst believes that if prices can decisively break through this consolidation pattern, it may trigger the next round of major directional trends.

Analysis of technical indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed at 39.56, below the median, but has not yet entered the oversold area. The MACD indicator is-0.0088, slightly above its signal line (approximately-0.0090).

If the XRP price clearly closes below US$1.34, it may open up downside to US$1.30. If the downward trend intensifies, the US$1.20 area will become the next key support level.

Conversely, if the price successfully recovers $1.38, it may push XRP back towards the $1.50 area, where $1.60 is a further upside target.

Wave Theory Analysis and Legislative Progress

TradingView analyst Kap_Waves pointed out that the market may be embarking on a second wave of correction, with prices expected to fall back to the US$1.15 to US$1.25 range before a significant upward continuation occurs. According to this framework, third-wave targets are set at $2.90 and $3.10, but these are still theoretical predictions and not certain results.

Senator Kevin Cramer said he has considerable confidence in the prospects of the CLARITY bill making progress in the Senate vote on September 15. Kalshi predicts that market participants put a 91% chance that the Senate will vote before October, while Polymarket users put a 13% chance that the bill will become law in 2026.

In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued proposed regulations aimed at promoting the integration of blockchain technology in the securities settlement process. The move may indicate that the regulatory environment is changing even as Congress continues legislative debate around the cryptocurrency framework.

According to the latest market data, XRP is trading at US$1.39.