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FollowingOil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked by unidentified objects, and crude oil supplies in the Middle East were rapidly restored
According to the British Maritime Trade Action Center (UKMTO), on October 4, a tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by unidentified flying objects. The ship's engine room was damaged, but all crew members were safe and no environmental impact was found.
The attack was the latest in several similar incidents in the region's waters since early October, marking the fourth ship attacked in a series of recent attacks.
Middle East crude oil flows back to 17.5 million barrels per day
These attacks came at a time when oil supplies in the region were recovering at a faster rate than in the early days of the conflict. JPMorgan estimates that crude oil shipments in the Middle East have rebounded to about 17.5 million barrels per day, or about 98% of pre-war levels. It should be noted that this data covers total crude oil exports across the Middle East and is not limited to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Traffic through the strait itself has also rebounded significantly. Recent data on the resumption of crude oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz showed that traffic climbed to about 12.8 million barrels per day in September, a significant improvement from disruptions that occurred early in the war.
In addition, Saudi Arabia has also restored more export capacity through alternative routes, thereby alleviating some of the immediate pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices fall, but risk premiums remain firm
A stronger supply outlook will help push crude oil prices lower from recent highs. Brent crude futures fell to about $102.59 a barrel earlier this week as traders reacted to the resumption of Middle East exports. However, current prices are still well above pre-war levels, indicating that there is still a considerable geopolitical risk premium embedded in the market.
Brent oil prices remained above US$100 when the east-west pipeline connecting Saudi Arabia was interrupted, removing one of the region's most important alternative export routes, a phenomenon that had previously shown signs of a risk premium.
The latest tanker attack helps explain why oil prices have not fallen more sharply. Even if crude oil shipments continue, repeated attacks could drive up insurance and freight costs, while shipowners could demand higher compensation to cope with the additional risks posed by operating on high-risk waterways.
