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BTC Bitcoin prices tested support this week and are ready to break through the bullish flag
Summary of core views:
- If the bullish flag breaks upwards, the Bitcoin price is expected to hit US$90,000. Continuing to stand above the resistance level is the key to achieving this goal.
- Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until seven conditions are met. Prolonged shipping disruptions may exacerbate inflationary pressures and financing risks.
- The Coinbase premium index is recovering, suggesting that demand in the U.S. market is picking up. However, changes in whale account orders have created uncertainty about nearby liquidity levels.
- Rising yields and the upcoming release of U.S. economic data may test Bitcoin's momentum. If the support level falls, leveraged bulls face liquidation risks.
Market outlook under the double attack of geopolitics and macroeconomics
This week's Bitcoin price forecast will focus on US$90,000 as the cryptocurrency is consolidating around US$85,000. A potential bullish flag pattern above support provides the basis for this target, but confirmation signals require a sustained breakthrough.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagr Kalibaf said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until a commitment from the United States is obtained. He linked the conditions for reopening to seven provisions in the Islamabad Memorandum, which kept geopolitical risks at the forefront of market attention. Shipping disruptions could complicate the inflation outlook.
与此同时，复苏中的美国现货需求面临着收益率上升和即将公布的经济数据的压力。这些相互竞争的力量使得比特币容易受到双向剧烈波动的影响。
技术面分析：突破前的关键测试
本周比特币的价格走势取决于盘整区间是否向上解决。市场数据显示，价格在85,000美元附近交易了五周，最新一周的高点触及87,000美元。如果发生向上突破，且前阻力位转变为支撑位，将增强看涨旗形指向90,000美元的逻辑。反之，若遭遇反复拒绝，则该情景走弱，市场注意力将集中在盘整区间的下沿。
Coinbase溢价指数为本周比特币价格提供了另一个观察维度。早期的恢复迹象表明美国需求有所 renewed（更新/恢复），但这并不一定意味着发生了持久的转变。CryptoQuant通过计算Coinbase的美元价格与Binance的泰达币（USDT）价格来计算该溢价。特定交易所的资金流向以及稳定币定价差异可能会影响读数。该指数反映的是相对定价，而非直接衡量流入市场的新资本。
更强的读数可以表明Coinbase上的买入压力增加，但需要更广泛的交易活动来确认。如果没有跨交易所的持续上涨，暂时的溢价可能会消退。
根据CoinGlass的订单数据，在82,500美元处存在1,325万美元的买单，而在84,799.90美元处存在1,552万美元的卖单。这些订单变化迅速，并不能确立永久性的支撑或阻力位。
霍尔木兹海峡关闭引发的通胀与融资风险
卡利巴夫表示，在伊朗提出重新开放海峡的路径图后，华盛顿通过调解人提交了提案。他拒绝了单方面要求，并将通道准入与美国遵守七项条件联系起来。伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐另外表示，如果提案被接受，海峡可能在七天内重新开放。
霍尔木兹海峡争端为本周比特币价格增添了能源风险。长期的中断可能导致石油成本上升，使通胀预期变得复杂，并削弱市场对货币政策放松的信心。
此外，沙特支持的也门政府军在战斗中打击了胡塞武装控制的萨那，导致平民流离失所。这种地区升级增加了市场的不确定性，而市场已经在评估航运争端带来的影响。
宏观数据与经济发布的考验
债券收益率上升为本周比特币价格带来了另一大挑战。据报道，较高的国债收益率与30年期抵押贷款7.6%的利率并存。虽然这些数据衡量的是不同的借贷成本，但它们都反映了金融条件的收紧。
ISM将于10月5日发布服务业报告，这将对商业活动和价格压力进行早期测试。美联储纪要将在10月7日随后发布，遵循央行三周的发布时间表。就业更新、失业救济金申请以及密歇根大学通胀预期也将塑造利率预期。
此前一年期通胀预期曾达到4.6%。更强的通胀信号可能会强化对限制性政策的预期，从而降低对风险资产的需求。
清算风险与市场流动性
清算热力图显示，杠杆多头头寸的风险敞口较大。对于本周的比特币价格而言，支撑位的跌破可能会触发强制抛售，而此时新的现货需求尚未吸收供应。杠杆率和未平仓合约的变化可能会改变交易时段内估计的清算集群区域。
