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Bitcoin price forecast: Can BTC continue its rally?

2026-10-04 21:36:15
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比特币价格分析：$87,000阻力位仍是关键

CoinCodex数据显示，比特币（BTC）目前交易价格约为84,912美元，整个加密货币市场也呈现温和上涨态势。然而，比特币仍低于近期87,000至87,300美元的波段高点，这意味着短期走势仍受制于该阻力区间。

当前的显著变化在于，尽管美国国债收益率上升且非农就业数据疲软，比特币仍成功守住了9月下旬的大部分涨幅。

$87,000：盘整与突破的分水岭

在过去两周的大部分时间里，比特币主要在80,000美元低位的支撑位与接近87,000美元的阻力位之间波动。此前已识别出的BTC突破形态指出，多头需要清除87,300美元这一关卡，下一个明确的目标将是90,000美元。这一技术结构目前大体保持完整。

如果比特币能够站稳85,000美元上方，并在成交量放大的情况下突破87,000至87,300美元区间，那么涨势有望延伸至90,000美元。若能干净利落地突破90,000美元大关，心理关口100,000美元将重新回到市场视野中。

ETF需求持续为牛市提供支撑

Institutional demand remains a strong argument for further increases in Bitcoin. In the third quarter, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted approximately US$6.34 billion in capital inflows, with a monthly inflow of US$2.65 billion in September. At the same time, Bitcoin rose nearly 43% during the quarter, posting its strongest third-quarter performance since 2017. Although daily capital flows remain volatile, the recent surge in ETF inflows continues to provide favorable background support for the market.

The macro environment is relatively complex. Weak jobs data on Friday reinforced expectations that the Fed would not raise interest rates immediately, but Treasury yields remained above 5%. This puts pressure on risky assets and increases the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.

Disclaimer:

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