美国议员推动禁止候选人押注自身选举

U.S. congressmen introduce bill to ban federal candidates from trading forecast market contracts linked to their elections

A U.S. congressman has introduced a legislative proposal that would impose a fine of at least $10,000 on federal candidates who trade forecast market contracts linked to their own elections.

Core of the bill

Representative Don Davis, Democrat of North Carolina, has proposed a bill that would prohibit federal candidates and their specific relatives from trading contracts related to their election. Violators face a civil fine of $10,000, or a fine equivalent to three times the net financial gain, whichever is higher.

The bill was introduced after prediction market platform Kalshi suspended trading rights for Davis 'Republican opponent Laurie Buckhout because she traded contracts related to her congressional district campaign.

Congress is not expected to review the proposal before the November 3 midterm elections. According to an October 5 announcement by Representative Davis, the No Betting on Your Own Race Act will prohibit federal candidates, their spouses, dependent children, and authorized campaign committees from purchasing, selling or holding contracts for certain election-related events.

The proposed restrictions apply to contracts based on whether a candidate wins the election, continues to run, or reaches a certain percentage, margin or ranking. The legislation also covers contracts related to primaries, caucuses, party congresses and other nomination competitions.

Under the bill, violations carry a civil fine of $10,000 or three times the net financial gain associated with the transaction, whichever is higher.

"We don't want athletes to bet on their own games. Candidates running for federal office should also be treated the same and should not be allowed to trade in their own elections." Davis said.

Davis said the proposal aims to prevent market manipulation and insider trading, while also preventing candidates and their families from using their elections to "profit".

Indirect transactions are also subject to restrictions

The legislation does not limit the ban to contracts purchased directly by candidates, but extends the restrictions to certain transactions conducted through others. According to the proposal, if a candidate instructs or requires others to obtain or dispose of a regulated contract, it will constitute a violation. Consciously providing funds to others to obtain such contractual benefits may also be prohibited.

The Federal Election Commission (FEC) will be required to maintain a free and machine-readable list of federal candidates and update the database at least once a week. In addition, candidates also need to be informed of transaction restrictions when applying for federal office.

Predictions that market operators and brokers will not face penalties if they only assist in prohibited transactions. The bill would protect platforms that take good faith measures to close accounts, revoke or unwind transactions, and report suspected violations to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the Justice Department, or the Federal Election Commission.

If someone already held an election contract before becoming a federal candidate, the proposal would allow them to process positions during a minimum divestment period set by the trading platform.

Although the bill does not name Kalshi or Polymarket, its definition of a political event contract will apply to similar products available on the forecast market.

Precedents and regulatory concerns

The legislation follows previous attempts by Congress to restrict public officials from trading in such products. Previous reports pointed out that House Administrative Committee Chairman Bryan Steil is working to work on H.R. Bill 7008, a proposal on congressional stock trading, adds forecast market restrictions. Steele said at the time that members of Congress should not trade contracts tied to election or public policy outcomes. H.R. Bill 7008 would also individually restrict members and their immediate family members from purchasing individual stocks and require advance disclosure of planned stock sales.

Kalshi's penalty triggers candidate trading review

Davis's legislation was introduced after Kalshi imposed disciplinary action on Laurie Buckhout. Buckhaut is the Republican candidate challenging Davis for his seat in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District.

In August this year, Kalshi found that Bakhout had purchased contracts worth less than $1,000 related to his own congressional campaign, so he imposed a three-year trading suspension and a financial fine of $2,589.96.

“我赌了自己。 literally（字面意思）。”巴克豪特在受到纪律处分后表示，“这是一个愚蠢的错误，一旦得知有问题，我就努力纠正它。”

Kalshi的规则将政治候选人视为能够直接影响比赛结果的人，并限制他们交易与这些比赛相关的合约。巴克豪特配合了平台的调查。

早在2026年初，Kalshi还暂停了三名国会候选人的资格五年，原因是确定他们交易了与其自身竞选相关的合约。

国会对此事的兴趣早于巴克豪特案。众议员曾探讨过，拥有非公开信息的人员是否可以通过交易其可影响结果的事件合约来获得优势。

预测市场在华盛顿面临更多关注

候选人交易问题是美国关于预测市场辩论的一部分，议员们还在审查市场完整性、消费者保护以及对不同类型事件合约的监管待遇。

9月23日，参议院银行委员会的所有11名民主党议员呼吁举行一场关于预测市场的听证会，此前共和党委员曾与Kalshi首席执行官塔雷克·曼苏尔（Tarek Mansour）会面。这些议员要求主席蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott）举行公开听证会，让全体委员会审查这些产品及其对消费者和金融系统的影响。他们的信函还提出了关于与企业绩效挂钩的合约的问题，议员们认为这些合约根据证券交易委员会（SEC）的规则可能 qualify 为基于证券的互换协议。

商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）则单独关注那些可能被拥有直接控制权的人影响结果的合约。机构工作人员已警告交易所注意基于特定人物言论、出席或行为的市场，要求运营商解释如何检测非公开信息的滥用，并识别有能力影响结算结果的人员。

与此同时，Kalshi继续寻求新的交易结构的联邦批准。今年9月，该公司提交了一份涵盖合格事件合约的保证金框架审批申请，其中包括与政治、经济、金融和商业事件挂钩的产品。

拟议的系统允许合格参与者缴纳保证金，而不是预先全额支付合格头寸的最大潜在损失。体育合约仍将不在该框架内，访问权限将仅限于通过注册的期货佣金商人或批准的自清算成员进行交易的用户。

法案无法在2026年中期选举前生效

Davis introduced the No Betting on Your Own Track Act at a formal House meeting, leaving little time for Congress to act and voters were about to head to the polls.

The House is not expected to resume regular voting until November 9, six days after the November 3 midterm elections. The Senate will also be in recess until the election is over.

Even if lawmakers later approve the proposal, its restrictions would apply to conduct starting from the date the legislation takes effect, rather than retroactively covering transactions made during the current election cycle.

Political event contracts will still be available during the 2026 campaign. Kalshi currently lists markets associated with control of House and Senate seats, individual congressional district races, and other U.S. political outcomes.