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FollowingThe U.S. Energy Information Administration raises oil price forecast: Geophysical risks and declining inventories drive market volatility
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for oil prices upward due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and a decline in global oil inventories. The report pointed out that the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to reach US$105 per barrel, a forecast increase of US$14 from the previous report. In addition, the EIA also raised its average price forecast for Brent crude in 2027 from US$73.74 to US$83.74. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz suggests that the risk of high volatility in oil prices may persist.
Brent crude oil forecast raised by US$14
The October Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the EIA showed that the average price of Brent crude oil in September was US$114 per barrel, US$23 higher than the average price in August. The agency expects the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be US$105 per barrel, a new forecast that is US$14 higher than the forecast in previous EIA reports.
For the full year, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be US$96.32, higher than the previous forecast of about US$91. At the same time, the full-year average price forecast for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) has also been raised to $88.21 from $84.65.
推动石油价格预期上调的主要因素包括中东供应中断导致全球库存减少，以及柴油市场的紧张局势。EIA预测，全球石油库存将在第三季度日均减少190万桶，并在第四季度继续日均减少70万桶。此外，分析认为，霍尔木兹海峡及替代运输路线上石油流量的潜在波动，可能会使短期内的价格运动更加剧烈。
2027年石油预测同步上调
EIA不仅调整了短期预期，也向上修订了2027年的石油价格预测。布伦特原油2027年的平均价格预期从73.74美元上调至83.74美元，WTI的预期则从69.74美元上调至79.74美元。尽管如此，机构仍预计2027年内石油价格将逐步回落。
这种回落的预期基于对中东生产和出口恢复的乐观看法，特别是通过替代运输路线和船对船转运方式的增加。预计布伦特原油价格在2027年第二季度平均降至87美元，并在第四季度随着全球库存重新增加而进一步回落至74美元。
On the production side, EIA expects global oil production to recover strongly in 2027 after declining in 2026 due to disruptions in the Middle East. Global production is expected to increase from an average daily average of 101.09 million barrels in 2026 to 109.55 million barrels in 2027. U.S. crude oil production is also expected to increase further, with average daily production expected to increase from 13.87 million barrels in 2026 to 14.3 million barrels in 2027. The gradual reduction of production losses caused by the conflict in the Middle East also marks the gradual recovery of global supplies.
Market Assessment
EIA raised its fourth-quarter forecast for Brent crude oil by US$14 to US$105, highlighting the continued impact of Middle East supply risks on energy markets. In the short term, low global inventories, tight diesel markets and uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to support oil prices. However, if production in the Middle East resumes in 2027 and global inventories begin to recover, Brent crude may face downward pressure.
