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AI company debt surges, infrastructure costs continue to climb

2026-10-08 12:11:32
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Anthropic与OpenAI对比:2026年的收入、亏损及AI盈利能力

人工智能公司正通过大量借贷来构建所需的计算设施。尽管销售额激增,但它们能否覆盖日益增长的 costs 仍存不确定性。

Anthropic的财务表现清晰地揭示了这一差距。据路透社报道,该公司在2025年实现销售额46亿美元,但运营亏损高达80.6亿美元。此后其财务状况有所改善。CNBC报道指出,Anthropic的年营收年化运行率在2026年7月达到650亿美元,预计年底前将突破1000亿美元。24/7 Wall Street也报道了其第二季度调整后运营结果为正值。

与此同时,OpenAI在第二季度实现收入67亿美元,但运营亏损达123亿美元。据Axios报道,截至9月,其年收入正向700亿美元迈进。尽管Anthropic的调整后结果未包含某些成本,且收入的快速增长并不必然带来可持续利润,但据悉Anthropic更接近实现盈利。

AI借贷暴露日益增长的财务风险

As of early August 2026, Goldman Sachs estimates AI-related debt issuance at approximately US$500 billion. CNBC reported that JPMorgan Chase expects total issuance to reach US$4.1 trillion by 2030. Broadcom is reportedly seeking more than $50 billion to fund the OpenAI chip project, and SpaceX is also seeking an additional $40 billion in support. Oracle is also looking for funding for its data center. In addition, Broadcom is expected to provide Anthropic with US$42 billion for its chip development.

These arrangements result in the spread of financial risk among lenders, suppliers and AI developers. As a result, the financial stability of AI labs has become critical to the entire credit market. However, borrowing money is only one problem. The cost of infrastructure does not end with the completion of construction. Bryan Musto estimates that by 2028, the annual depreciation costs of the five major hyperscale cloud service providers will be between $390 billion and $530 billion. His model shows that in order to cover depreciation and get a pre-tax return of 10 percent (excluding power and personnel costs), annual operating income for these hyper-scale cloud service providers should be in the range of $675 billion to $785 billion.

Debt boom may reshape global AI competition

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates, total investment in global data centers may reach a staggering US$31.6 trillion by 2050. Another study explored potential scenarios and believed that the total amount of AI-related debt could be between $3 trillion and $7 trillion by 2029. Of course, these are expected figures, not actual borrowing amounts.

The growing reliance on borrowing has raised concerns about financial stability. The Bank for International Settlements warned that the downturn in AI investment could affect broader financial markets. Small companies with large amounts of debt will be hardest hit. At the same time, tech giants with stronger financial positions may take advantage of the situation.

Still, a debt crisis is not inevitable. The bigger question is whether AI companies can generate enough revenue to cover debt while continuing to phase out expensive computing infrastructure.

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