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Following特朗普施压五角大楼备战：选举前对伊动武的政治算计与战略困境
周三，唐纳德·特朗普要求五角大楼制定新的方案，以便在美国11月3日中期选举投票前打击伊朗。此前他曾表示将等待大选结束后再恢复军事打击行动。
共和党正面临艰难的选举周期，伊朗战争已成为政治负担。特朗普希望在选民做出最终决定之前，能够拿出一些被视为“进展”的成果作为政绩。此外，他也希望看到汽油价格下降。
华盛顿尚无清晰答案
白宫尚未确定行动的规模。负责美国在战争中作战努力的中央司令部正在考虑潜在的目标和打击方案，而政治领导人则需决定攻击的规模以及特朗普总统是否应授权发动攻击。军方正在制定多种选项，以便总统一旦做出决定即可迅速行动。
然而，即便是支持再次打击的人也不认为这里存在奇迹。没有人指望此举能将伊朗政权逼入谈判桌；也没有人相信这能确保霍尔木兹海峡的自由通行；他们更明白，这在选举前无法降低油价。相反，军事打击的支持者将其视为一种展示力量的方式，旨在提升总统的形象。
This political value is crucial. Currently, Republican presidential candidates are trying to distance themselves from the eight-month-old war. Limited attacks could provide Trump with some sort of conversation material and help the Republican Party move forward. But the real challenges will emerge later.
About 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed in the region and will be in a fragile position if Iran retaliates. Gulf partners could also be targeted for retaliation. Another attack would consume more U.S. ammunition at a time when stocks were already tight. Wars tend to expand beyond their original scope.
Oil, the military and the Strait of Hormuz complicate the situation
There is also resistance within Trump's own political fundamentals. Some of the strongest supporters want the United States to withdraw from the conflict because they see war as another source of inflation.
Energy data offers no comfort to the White House. Historical data shows that crude oil prices usually rise when the United States resumes attacks after a pause.
Even before the second attack, the security environment in the Strait of Hormuz was deteriorating. Tankers have experienced their most dangerous week since the conflict began on February 28, which coincides with efforts by Gulf producers to add barrels to the market.
From September 28 to October 5, the Maritime Security Organization confirmed at least 12 attacks on oil tankers and ships transporting liquefied natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas. The methods of attack are not limited to direct actions, but also include attempted attacks, drone flights, and surveillance and radio contacts by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.
According to data from the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), led by the U.S. Navy, the above event trend suggests that Iran continues to exert influence on major trade routes. The Strait of Hormuz is crucial because it affects insurance costs, shipping costs and oil prices. This is particularly critical given that Washington is trying to convince Americans that energy costs will eventually fall.
Meanwhile, the United Nations shipping agency reported about nine such incidents during the discussions. This number is small because the International Maritime Organization requires verification of cases before counting. The last significant increase occurred in early July, when the group recorded eight incidents.
However, Gulf exporters managed to increase crude oil exports above pre-war levels in mid-September. Maintaining this speed will not be easy. Achieving this goal is becoming increasingly difficult due to harassment of tankers, difficulties in navigation and increasing logistics complexity.
Donald Trump has said that full-scale war may resume after the midterm elections. This means that any offensive orders issued before November 3 may be limited to small-scale operations.
