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FollowingASML’s financial reports show positive trends: profits reached nearly 5 billion euros, but stock prices remain under pressure.
Key points:
- ASML’s quarterly profit was 4.96 billion euros, but its stock price performance was weak.
- Despite strong demand for artificial intelligence technologies, quarterly revenue was slightly below market expectations.
- High valuations and overall weakness in the chip sector have dampened market sentiment.
Strong results do not necessarily offset the pressure on stock prices.
On October 14th, ASML, a leading Dutch semiconductor equipment company, announced quarterly profits of nearly 5 billion euros, raised its annual sales targets, and warned that demand for advanced chip manufacturing equipment could exceed its capacity by 2028. Nevertheless, its stock prices continued to face downward pressure. The company’s shares fell by approximately 0.6% in the United States, although its quarterly net profit reached 4.96 billion euros, more than double the same period last year. However, this initial decline did not continue in all markets; ASML’s shares actually increased during Wednesday’s trading session.
According to ASML’s quarterly reports, its revenue increased by approximately 55% year-over-year, reaching 11.66 billion euros, with a gross margin of 57.5%. However, these results highlight a common issue with highly valued AI-related stocks: exceptionally strong earnings do not always meet investors’ expectations.
Why does strong performance lead to falling stock prices?
一种可能的解释是，ASML的实际业绩与其股价中已反映的预期之间存在差距。虽然季度利润大幅超出预测，但116.6亿欧元的营收略低于分析师预期的约118.5亿欧元。这种相对 modest 的落差之所以重要，是因为自2026年初以来，ASML股价已累计上涨约60%-70%。
股价的强劲表现将其估值推升至高位，使得投资者对盈利惊喜、生产约束以及预期增长的变化日益敏感。
另一个复杂因素是更广泛的半导体板块抛售。10月份，费城半导体指数（PHLX Semiconductor Index）下跌约5%，包括英伟达（Nvidia）、AMD和美光科技（Micron）在内的公司因人工智能投资的可持续性和竞争加剧而面临压力。
最新的AI芯片抛售潮还因国债收益率上升而加剧，较高的利率使得未来企业收益在折现时价值降低。这造成了一种 unusual 的局面：ASML的基础业务仍在迅速扩张，但投资者对其愿意为这种增长支付的价格变得更加谨慎。
ASML预计AI芯片设备需求将持续至2030年
公司的前景与市场担忧形成了鲜明对比。ASML上调了其2026年营收预测的下限，预计全年销售额将在440亿至450亿欧元之间。第四季度营收预计将达到142亿至152亿欧元。
CEO Christophe Fouquet also revealed that some customers have expressed interest in placing orders for equipment destined for use in 2029 and 2030. This indicates a willingness to invest in long-term AI infrastructure initiatives. More importantly, ASML believes that its production capacity in 2027 and 2028 may not be sufficient to meet the expected demand from customers.
The company previously outlined plans to increase the production capacity of certain advanced lithography systems by 30% by 2027, and is currently considering further increases in 2028. Such equipment is crucial for semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, which produce or develop advanced chips used in AI computing infrastructure.
This makes ASML an important indirect beneficiary of NVIDIA’s AI expansion efforts, although NVIDIA typically relies on manufacturing partners rather than directly purchasing ASML’s equipment.
With AI investment accelerating, can ASML’s stock price recover?
ASML’s profitability indicates that demand for semiconductor equipment remains strong, but its future performance will not depend solely on quarterly profit growth. Investors must assess whether capacity expansions can support expected orders, whether customers will maintain their investment plans, and whether current valuations take into account potential growth over the next few years.
更广泛的金融环境构成了另一项挑战。借贷成本上升和通胀担忧重现，使得投资者对昂贵的科技公司变得更加挑剔，即使盈利持续改善也是如此。正如国债收益率与科技股估值之间的关系所示，利率上升会给成长型股票带来压力，而无需其业务出现即时恶化。
对于ASML而言，核心问题在于，到2030年加速的设备需求能否转化为足够的盈利增长，以证明其2026年大幅反弹的合理性。公司最新的结果支持长期AI投资叙事，但股价反应的混合表明，强劲的基本面与短期的股价表现并不总是同步。
