TOTAL3 returns to a long-term relative bottom, with historical support failing to confirm that the shanzhai season
The altcoin market is approaching a level that previously marked the start of a major market. The TOTAL3 Index, which tracks cryptocurrency markets other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, has returned to long-term relative support. Historical comparisons have drawn market attention to this area: before the altcoin explosion in 2017 and 2021, the index hit similar bottoms. Both periods eventually spawned strong rallies before market momentum waned near the downward resistance structure. The current trend does not guarantee another copycat season, but it has reignited discussions about whether the market is approaching another turning point.
The current structure is important because altcoins have experienced years of relatively weak performance. The market is not at the high point of the long-term cycle, but is closer to its historical starting point.
Raydium may benefit from Solana ecological activity
Raydium (RAY) is closely linked to the activity of the Solana ecosystem. As a decentralized exchange, the token benefits from trading activity and liquidity requirements on the network. If Solana Ecosystem's trading volume expands, Raydium may gain more attention. However, its performance will still depend on network usage, mobility and broader DeFi activity.
Ethena faces different market tests
Ethena (ENA) is built around synthetic dollar infrastructure and decentralized finance. Its future performance may be affected by changes in stablecoin demand, agreement activity and the regulatory environment. The token is still exposed to market volatility and agreement growth. Any sustained recovery may require sustained practical adoption rather than mere speculation.
Curve DAO is still closely related to DeFi liquidity
Curve DAO (CRV) occupies a solid position in the decentralized finance sector, especially in liquidity infrastructure. Its market outlook may be affected by changes in stablecoin trading volume, liquidity requirements and the DeFi protocol. A broad recovery in decentralized finance may improve market sentiment towards CRVs, but competition and changes in yields remain important factors.
VeChain and Optimism bring different perspectives
VeChain (VET) focuses on blockchain implementation in enterprise applications and supply chain fields. Its potential recovery depends in part on network adoption and corporate demand for blockchain solutions. Optimism (OP) is related to Ethereum's expansion through Layer-2 infrastructure. The increase in Layer-2 usage may affect network activity, but competition for expanding networks remains fierce.
What historical patterns may mean
The current structure of TOTAL3 provides reasons to pay close attention to altcoins, but history alone cannot predict the next market trend. The 2017 and 2021 cycles were formed under different liquidity, regulatory and adoption conditions. Therefore, for investors, the key signal may not be prediction, but confirmation. Only by continued breakthroughs, stronger liquidity and broader participation can we provide clearer evidence for a new round of altcoin market. Currently, the market appears to be testing a historically important area. Whether it will become another starting point depends on conditions that are still evolving.

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