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FollowingBill's outlook is worrying: Predicted markets see low probability of passage in 2026
With John Thune failing to initiate the Senate closing debate process before recess in August, market traders now believe that the CLARITY Act is unlikely to pass in 2026.
Key Points
After Tuesday's delay, the probability of the bill passing this year dropped to 27%.
The Senate has only a few days left before the August 10-September 11 state working period.
Issues such as ethics, developer protection provisions and vote counting remain unresolved.
CLARITY Act delay
Senate Majority Leader Thoon failed to file closing arguments on the motion to advance on Tuesday, which led to the exclusion of the cryptocurrency market structure bill from the procedural sequence required for a recent vote. The Senate's tentative schedule will enter the state working period on August 10, and the remaining floor time available is very limited.
Kalshi traders predicted a 27% chance of the bill becoming law in 2026, well below the 82% forecast at the beginning of the year, reported on Wednesday.
Other contracts cited in the same report show a 41% probability of implementation before July 1, 2027, 58% before October 1, 2027, and 65% before January 1, 2028. Trading volume in the market has exceeded US$5.42 million.
If a closing debate application is submitted on Wednesday, the Senate procedural timing can still be triggered, but the rules require a one-day interval before the first vote, and a maximum of 30 hours of debate is allowed after the debate is closed.
What is at stake in the CLARITY Act
Reporter Eleanor Trett said that the procedural work of the continuing resolution partly explains the delay, while uncertain support and unresolved terms may have influenced Thun's decision. Negotiations focused on ethical restrictions and the Blockchain Regulatory Determinism Act, which deals with when software developers should face financial regulation.
Matt Hogan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, believes that even if the bill is not passed immediately, cryptocurrencies can continue to grow thanks to regulatory changes and institutional adoption. However, this view does not mean that delays are irrelevant. The bill will define federal regulatory authority over digital assets, including provisions on exchange rules, decentralized finance, tokenized securities, and stablecoin rewards.
The House approved its version by a vote of 294 to 134 in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee approved a related measure by a vote of 15 to 9 on May 14, 2026. The legislation still needs to obtain a 60-vote threshold in the Senate, be reconciled with the House version, and be approved by the president, making losing floor time particularly costly before the Chinese election campaign intensifies.
