HYPE prices rebound, but Hyperliquid's second-quarter performance raises questions

Disclaimer: Content does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks—please invest with caution!

Key Points

HYPE is currently facing intensive resistance around US$57 -58.

HIP-3 accounted for 32.2% of quarterly matching volume.

June was Hyperliquid's highest revenue month since November 2025.

Aid fund holdings reached 45.56 million HYPEs.

The team received only 4.3% of its quarterly share.

Predicted that the market generated volume but generated almost no fees.

HYPE Test Intensive Resistance Zone

When the chart was intercepted on August 5, HYPE was trading close to US$57, up about 3.9% on the day. The rally sent prices hitting two technical resistance levels at the same time: the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day simple moving average (about $58).

The overlap between the two makes the US$57 -58 area a decision point rather than a confirmed breakthrough. Both levels have previously acted as resistance, increasing the risk of buyers losing momentum before establishing support.

HYPE rebounded to the US$57 -58 resistance area, which is the convergence point of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day SMA. Chart source: TradingView, August 5, 2026.

If the daily closing price is above the region and then successfully steps back, the structure will improve. The next major resistance is around $62 -63, with the 50th SMA at around $62.5. After breaking out of that position, the broader area of resistance (about $65) will return to focus.

Prices may still be rejected until a breakthrough is confirmed. The first important support level is around $52, which is the end of the recent decline. If you lose this area, it may expose the support level near $47 below.

The daily RSI has rebounded to around 47.5, indicating that momentum has improved during the rebound, but has not yet decisively entered the bullish area above 50.

The current technical background coexist with mixed fundamentals. Hyperliquid entered the third quarter with strengthened trading activity, but quarterly revenue fell and its reliance on low-rate markets increased.

Hyperliquid Second Quarter Report 2026 is not a financial statement issued by a traditional company. HRC, GLC Research and Four Pillars reconstructed the data based on public ledger records, independent data providers and contractual disclosures.

The report shows that there is a clear gap between activity volume and liquidity. Agreement revenue fell 6.6% to US$169.37 million, and the reported holder income measure fell 4.7% to US$142.88 million, while the overall agreement total locked value (TVL) increased 16.8% to US$5.72 billion.

More trading activity generates less revenue

Traders paid a total of $197.67 million in fees in the second quarter, down 5.9% from $210.04 million in the previous quarter. Of this, approximately US$28.31 million belonged to builders, deployers and other ecosystem participants and did not become agreement revenue.

Some operating indicators still rose: matching volume increased by 2.7% to US$662.4 billion; average open interest increased by 25.4% to US$8.68 billion; open interest at the end of the quarter increased by 28.6% to US$9.31 billion; the average daily number of perpetual contract traders increased by 19.8% to 54,294; spot volume increased by 5.3% to US$16.2 billion.

The decline in revenue is due to more activity shifting away from Hyperliquid's high-rate native perpetual contract market to lower-rate builder deployment markets.

The performance at the end of the quarter was also stronger than at the beginning of the quarter. Agreed revenue fell to $46.19 million in April, rebounded to $53.14 million in May, and reached $70.03 million in June, setting the best monthly performance since November 2025.

Hyperliquid Monthly Agreement and Holder Income Chart.

HIP-3 becomes Hyperliquid's main growth engine

Native perpetual contract volume fell for the third consecutive quarter, falling 12.7% to US$432.9 billion. Growth instead comes from the perpetual contract market deployed by HIP-3 builders. HIP-3 volume increased 59.6% to US$213.3 billion, accounting for 32.2% of all matching volume, up from 20.7% in the first quarter. Open interest on HIP-3 reached $3.09 billion at the end of the quarter, a further increase of 47.2%.

Under the HIP-3 mechanism, independent builders can deploy a perpetual contract market on Hyperliquid's infrastructure without waiting for the protocol's mainline launch process. Deployers can choose important market parameters, provide front-end interfaces, and collect part of the fees generated by their market.

This expands the market range available on Hyperliquid, but HIP-3 volume generates less agreement revenue than activity in the native perpetual contract market. Hyperliquid's "growth model" fee structure reduces agreement fees, rebates, volume contributions and some rate-limit contributions in eligible markets by 90%, helping them attract traders without immediately recouping lost revenue due to reduced native activity.

One deployer accounts for almost all HIP-3 volume

The shelves have also become more concentrated. Trade[XYZ] accounted for approximately 81% of HIP-3 volume in February and reached 93% in April. By July after the quarter ended, its share was close to 100%, and other deployers were scaling back or migrating their markets.

Shared liquidity means that a decrease in the number of deployers does not necessarily lead to a decrease in liquidity in the underlying market, as multiple interfaces can route users to the same order book. But this centralization remains important at the deployment level: Trade[XYZ] may benefit from greater liquidity and easier market discovery, but users now have fewer meaningful alternatives.

Buybacks continue, but HYPE prices change the landscape

Aid funds purchased 2.77 million HYPEs for US$140.66 million in the second quarter, with an average quarterly execution price of approximately US$50.80. The US dollar amount was only slightly lower than the US$147.72 million invested in the first quarter, but due to the sharp increase in token trading prices, the number of tokens purchased fell 43.9% from 4.94 million in the first quarter. The fund remains a source of demand, although the number of tokens purchased per dollar has decreased.

Aid funds held 45.56 million HYPEs at the end of the quarter, an increase of 6.4% from the first quarter and a 78.6% increase from the same period last year. The report found that there were no discretionary sales during the quarter.

The team's low withdrawal rate reduces immediate supply pressure

According to the second quarter plan, the team can receive approximately 29.8 million HYPEs, but only 1.289 million were received. The withdrawal rate was only 4.3%, down from 5.1% in the first quarter and falling for the third consecutive quarter.

Based on the reported average price, the team received approximately US$69 million from its share worth approximately US$1.53 billion. Another 64.9 million tokens that have been vested but have not been claimed are still pending, valued at approximately US$4.3 billion based on HYPE quarter-end prices.

Low withdrawal rates limit the number of tokens that can be immediately used for transfer or sale, but these tokens have not disappeared from the supply. They are still available for collection, and the due share of approximately 9.92 million HYPE units per month continues to be distributed. Changes in team behavior can quickly change supply expectations.

New products expand coverage but add limited revenue

HIP-4 volume is concentrated on World Cup

HIP-4 predicts that the market generated US$211.3 million in unilateral volume in 59 trading days and attracted 13,046 new traders during the quarter. Trading volume doubled from $70.6 million in May to $140.7 million in June, with the highest single-day on June 27, reaching $12.1 million. The average daily trader also increased from 1,343 in May to 1,506 in June.

Most of the growth comes from one event. The World Cup market accounted for 83.8% of turnover in the tracking market group, while the regular Bitcoin market had dropped to about $100,000 a day by mid-July after reaching millions of dollars in launch week.

Total HIP-4 expenses for the full quarter were still below $3000. The product attracted traders during major events, but demand during the regular market cycle has not yet been confirmed.

USDC migration raises new revenue issues

Hyperliquid has also completed the transition from USDH to USDC as its main bidding asset. The period from announcement to basic completion took approximately 11 weeks and involved more than $90 million in USDH supplies. According to the report, there were no unanchors, bridges or public disputes in the relocation. The Hyper Foundation allocated approximately $10 million in funding to affected deployers and HyperEVM applications, with support based in part on auction costs and affected TVLs.

Integrating markets around USDC reduces liquidity fragmentation and potentially creates new reserve-based revenue streams through Aligned Quotes Asset Version 2 (AQAv2). The report estimates potential annual revenue between $135 million and $200 million, but treats the range as unconfirmed. The estimate depends on the eligible reserve base, interest rates, Coinbase and Circle arrangements, and the final share allocated to Hyperliquid. The first reserve gain payment expected on October 3 will provide the first direct evidence of whether the expected economic model is realistic.

HyperEVM stablecoins grow faster than DeFi activity

Stability coins held on HyperEVM increased 313% in the second quarter, from US$1.35 billion to US$5.58 billion. HyperEVM's TVL went in the opposite direction, falling 14.8% to $1.44 billion. The two numbers are not directly contradictory: stablecoin balances measure assets held on the network, while TVL tracks capital deployed in applications. Their differences suggest that introducing more dollar-denominated assets into HyperEVM has not resulted in the same growth in lending, liquidity pools and other agreements.

Lending TVL was US$744 million at the end of the quarter, down 11.7% from the first quarter and 38% below its peak in the third quarter of 2025. HyperLend became the largest lending venue, with TVL of $407 million and active loans of $252 million, surpassing Morpho, whose deposits have dropped to approximately $248 million.