AAVE Price Forecast: Can $144 support open the path to $178?

The AAVE price traded on Binance with a daily gain of 4.98% to approximately US$167, hitting an intraday high of US$168.47.

The October 2026 AAVE price forecast depends on whether buyers can hold the support level of US$144.01, which will determine the continuity of the September 2026 breakthrough pattern.

Today's price of AAVE

According to CoinMarketCap data at around 05:20 UTC on October 1, 2026, the current price of AAVE is US$165.93, up 3.08% in 24 hours. The 24-hour trading range is $157.78 to $168.14. Due to the different refresh frequencies of each data provider, there may be subtle differences in quotations.

Market value and supply

Market value (i.e. price multiplied by circulating supply) is US$2.56 billion. The circulation supply is 15.43 million pieces, and the total supply is 16 million pieces. The fully diluted valuation is US$2.65 billion. The price has now stabilized above the $160 mark.

Trading volume

CoinMarketCap showed 24-hour trading volume of approximately US$463.85 million, down 47.28% from the previous day. Binance dominated futures activity with a transaction volume of US$219.94 million, ahead of OKX's US$88.28 million. The launch dynamics of the new exchange may guide changes in the flow of funds.

Futures Market Data

Derivatives data showed futures volume was US$661.75 million, while spot volume was US$98.43 million. The total value of open interest (Open Interest) was US$438.53 million.

Long-short ratio and open position situation

Binan's account long-short ratio is 1.8289, and the long-short ratio of leading traders 'positions is 2.2263. A ratio above 1 indicates that there are more long positions than short positions. The amount of open positions in the past 24 hours was US$1.02 million, of which the amount of short positions was US$715,000. For relevant morphological background, please refer to the early AA VE Wolf wave analysis.

Holder concentration

Etherscan data shows that the number of holders is 188,273. The top 10 addresses control 44.30% of the market share, while 824 whale wallets control 92.53% of the market value. When large wallets change, this high concentration can exacerbate market volatility.

AAVE Technical Analysis: Rising Channel Structure

Technical Analysis shows that AAVE experienced a consolidation breakthrough in August, and subsequently formed an rising channel on the TradingView daily chart. Prices have increased 34.11% in the past 30 days and 93.08% in the past 90 days. The price had tested the channel upper boundary of $176.28.

RSI reading

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a measure of momentum (range 0-100), with a daily reading of 67.35. This value is slightly below 70, the starting point of the overbought area. But this gap leaves room for further price expansion. See the relevant liquidity capture recovery report for the analysis of callback repairs.

MACD readings

The Moving Average Convergence and Divergence Indicator (MACD) measures the direction of the trend by comparing two moving averages, with the current reading of 10.16 and the signal line of 8.38. Kinetic energy remains positive, but technical indicators are only reference evidence rather than absolute certainty. More price forecast updates will be released one after another.

The 100-day EMA and support level

The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) are at US$117.71, with current prices operating at 42.2% above it. Although the initial momentum appears to be overextended, this gap is consistent with the characteristics of an extended trend. Key support and resistance levels for AAVE include $144.01,$113.20,$83.99 and $58.62 below, and $176.28 above. Whether $144.01 can survive the correction will be a key observation point.

Fibonacci Extended Target

Fibonacci Extended Projections Target Price from previous bands. Targets marked on the chart are $178.60,$217.97,$281.68,$345.40 and $409.11, respectively. The goal after exceeding US$178.60 requires the cooperation of trading volume to achieve it.

Aave V4 Loan Growth

According to Aave's official account, as of September 30, Aave V4's active loan volume exceeded US$401.3 million. The total value of deposit assets (TVL) in the agreement is US$17.75 billion. The ratio of market value to TVL is 0.1446.

OUSD launch proposal

A proposal to introduce OUSD into Aave V3 Core and V4 Core is underway. Aave describes OUSD as a stablecoin used for banking services, cross-border payments and institutional transactions.

Avalanche and Real World Assets (RWA)

Aave founder Stani Kulechov said that Avalanche will become the central hub of RWA (Real World Assets) on the Aave platform.

Monad proposal and CCIP 2.0

Recent news points out that a proposal seeks to deploy a V4 version on the Monad network, including three risk-tiered markets, USDC and USDT0 as loanable assets. Chainlink launched CCIP 2.0 on September 28, and developments in the encryption field continue.

Catalyst Calendar

The governance vote on Monad and OUSD is the next main catalyst. The specific voting date has not yet been confirmed, and the timetable will be announced in the event calendar.

Liquidity profile

Liquidity accounts for 0.82% of market value, which is weak relative to its valuation. Capital attention also competes with new token pre-sales.

AAVE October 2026 Scenario Outlook

For October, as long as prices remain above US$144.01, the bullish trend remains intact. Although an RSI close to 70 suggests a pause in consolidation may be needed before reaching $178.60.

• Bull Market Scenario: If the average daily closing price continues to be above US$178.60 and trading volume increases, the target of US$217.97 may be exposed.
• Baseline scenario: Prices fluctuate between US$144.01 and US$178.60.
• Bear market scenario: If it falls below US$144.01, it may drop to US$113.20. If it falls below US$113.20, the current structure will fail.

The methodology is based on Fibonacci, RSI, MACD, EMA and derivatives data.

Outlook risk

Volume fell 47.28%, the RSI was close to 70, and the Giant Whale Wallet dominated supply. However, speculative capital flows associated with memes may divert liquidity.

Follow-up focus

The voting results, V4 loan data and whether the RSI exceeds 70 will determine the next stage of trend. Incentive activities, including airdrops, may also divert market attention.