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Following
SHIB The signals on the Shiba Inu chain are divided: the surge in outflows masks greater inflow pressure.
Shiba Inu has recently shown seemingly bullish signals on the chain, but when combined with the overall data on exchange capital flows, the situation is more complicated. SHIB's seven-day average net exchange outflow surged 121.26% in 24 hours to approximately 579 million tokens, indicating that more and more holders are withdrawing tokens from trading platforms. Normally, this move reduces the selling supply immediately available in the market.
However, funds flow into exchanges faster. Data showed that SHIB's seven-day average inflow rose sharply by 182.3%, reaching approximately 1.68 billion coins. The total inflow reached 318.28 billion SHIBs, while the outflow was 231.74 billion, resulting in a net capital inflow of approximately 86.53 billion SHIBs. This data makes what seemed to be clear bullish indicators full of contradictions.
A surge in outflows of 121% has not offset greater inflow pressure
Exchange outflows usually indicate that positions are accumulating or moving to self-managed wallets, but their bullish significance is mainly that outflows exceed the amount returned to the exchange. Under the current circumstances, this condition has not been met. The number of SHIBs entering trading platforms exceeds the number leaving, which means that the supply of instant liquidity is still increasing. In addition, exchange reserves also rose slightly by about 0.1%, reaching 87.29 trillion SHIBs, further confirming this view.
This pattern is similar to similar pressures that emerged at the end of August. Previously, SHIB had recorded a positive net inflow of approximately 145.9 billion coins to the exchange, which was close to 261.7 billion coins in another session. The exchange pressure came as the August rally lost momentum.
$0.00005 becomes the real test
Timing is crucial as SHIB has fallen back to one of the most important support areas in 2026. The current trading price of the token is close to $0.0000520, falling nearly 4% offline on the daily K line, failing to hold the rebound momentum above $0.00000540. The next key technical level is around $0.0000500, while the larger moving average resistance level is around $0.0000568.
$0.000005 This area has been tested multiple times this year. SHIB gave up most of the gains it rebounded in August after recently encountering rejections near its 200-day moving average. At the same time, open interest in derivatives fell approximately 36% to US$47.9 million from US$74.3 million, indicating that speculative participation is cooling as prices fall.
Therefore, the reversal in August added another layer of bearish color to the current exchange fund flow pattern. Burning narratives are unlikely to provide relief in the short term. Earlier this week, despite large fluctuations in burning rates, only 3.59 million SHIBs were burned in 24 hours, valued at only about $18 at the time.
This is why the latest surge in outflows should not be interpreted in isolation. Although SHIB is leaving the exchange faster than ever, more tokens are pouring in. Until this balance turned negative, the more important figure was not the 121% outflow increase, but the fact that 86.5 billion SHIBs still net flowed into the exchange.
