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FollowingCore Points
Piper Sandler predicts that by 2028, Alphabet's external TPU chip revenue will soar to US$104 billion. Analyst Thomas Champion raised GOOGL's price target to $400 from $395 while maintaining an "overweight" rating. In pre-market trading, GOOGL fell about 1% and hovered around $341.60. The company's forecast for cloud revenue in 2027 exceeds the Wall Street consensus by 15-17%. Alphabet's earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of 2026 were $9.11, far exceeding market expectations of $2.87.
Stock Price Performance and Analyst Views
In pre-market trading on Monday, due to widespread selling pressure on technology stocks, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares fell slightly by 1% to fluctuate around $341.60. Despite the weakness of the market, Piper Sandler issued an optimistic update. Its analyst Thomas Champion raised GOOGL's price target to $400 from the previous $395 and kept its "overweight" rating unchanged. Champion's revised price target shows that the stock still has significant upside potential based on current valuation levels. The increase stems from its updated financial model for Alphabet's semiconductor business.
The TPU business has huge growth potential
The core of Champion's investment logic lies in Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) technology. Analysis shows that its external chip hardware business is expected to achieve annual revenue of US$104 billion in 2028. This forecast is based on Google's first public disclosure of external TPU sales data, which was released at the time of its second-quarter 2026 earnings report.
Infrastructure expansion plan
Champion 的财务模型假设，到 2027 年底，运营中的 TPU 容量将达到 3GW。预计该容量将进一步扩大，至 2028 年 12 月达到 6GW。Piper Sandler 的分析中，每 GW 已安装容量的计算基础设施资本支出估计为 300 亿美元。按此计算，每 GW 容量大约部署 100 万颗半导体芯片。
Champion 的预测还假设 TPU 硬件销售的营业利润率为 30%。这一盈利水平将与 Alphabet 其他业务板块目前的利润率结构保持一致。
云业务强劲增长
Piper Sandler 对 Alphabet 2027 年云部门收入的预测现已达到 2040 亿美元。这代表了同比增长 920 亿美元，其中包括来自传统云服务业务的 1530 亿美元以及归因于 TPU 芯片销售的 510 亿美元。Piper Sandler 对 2027 年和 2028 年云部门 EBIT 的预测均比华尔街共识高出 18-19%。Champion 形容自己的预测令人“震惊”，并暗示这些预测可能实际上低估了潜在业绩。
他引用了 Broadcom 高管关于 Anthropic 半导体需求的近期声明。Broadcom 曾公开讨论过专为 Anthropic 设计的 5GW 基础设施容量，计划于 2027 年建成，并在 2028 年扩展至 10GW。
华尔街分析师社区观点
Several other Wall Street companies have also recently updated their coverage ratings for Alphabet. Goldman Sachs lowered its price target to $435 from $440, but retained a "buy" rating. BOC International lowered its target price to US$445 from US$485. UBS fine-tuned its target price from $400 to $379 while maintaining a "neutral" view. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $400 from $415. MarketBeat data showed that seven analysts gave a "strong buy" rating, 34 maintained a "buy" rating, and four held a "neutral" position.
The current Wall Street consensus price target is $419.93, which is higher than Piper Sandler's new $400 target.
Latest earnings and shareholder dynamics
Alphabet's recent quarterly results showed strong performance indicators. The company's earnings per share reached $9.11, significantly exceeding the analyst consensus forecast of $2.87. Total revenue reached US$119.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, exceeding market expectations of US$116.53 billion.
In the past 90 days, company insiders have reduced their holdings of 441,428 shares worth approximately US$8.7 million. Institutional investors and hedge funds together hold 27.26% of the total shares outstanding.
