Bitcoin prices fall below $80,000, employment data boosts interest rate hike expectations

Bitcoin fell below the US$80,000 mark

Bitcoin prices fell back below US$80,000 after strong U.S. employment data pushed up Fed interest rate hikes and technical charts showed a rebound had encountered resistance around US$82,500. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately US$79,600, a retracement from the intraday high of US$81,370.

Data showed that the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in August was 162,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Daily-level resistance is around $82,500, while the Supertrend indicator on the 4-hour chart is around $78,190. Clearing-intensive areas near $80,000 and $82,000 may dominate Bitcoin's next short-term trend.

Price correction and key resistance

According to crypto.news, as of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) prices fluctuated around US$79,600, falling by about 1.5% in 24 hours. The asset had previously hit an intraday high of $81,370 before seller power lowered it to $78,723.

The correction follows Bitcoin's earlier rise above $82,000, the highest level since May. However, buyers failed to maintain the rally, causing prices to fall back below the main resistance zone visible on the daily chart. Bitcoin's daily K line shows assets trading around $79,613 after hitting an intraday high of $79,763. Prices remain below horizontal resistance of around $82,504, which is also close to the May band high.

The rejection signal interrupted a strong recovery that started from an August low of about $62,500. During this period, Bitcoin has gained about 30%, breaking through multiple previous low highs, but the $82,000 - 82,800 region has twice blocked recent attempts to extend the gains.

Strong employment data triggers correction

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, well above the average monthly increase of 31,000 in the past 12 months. Unemployment remained at 4.1%. Among them, the catering service industry added 59,000 jobs, the local government education department added 42,000 jobs, and the information industry lost 23,000 jobs.

The report prompted traders to increase the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting. According to Reuters, the implied probability rose to 61% from 52% before the employment data was released. Citigroup therefore postponed its forecast for the timing of the Fed's next interest rate cut from October 2026 to June 2027. Higher interest rate expectations have also pushed up Treasury yields and supported the dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding and risk-sensitive assets.

Analyst Rain said that the employment report was a direct trigger for Bitcoin's decline, but he believed that the technical structure had been formed before the data was released. Rain pointed out that BTC was rejected at around $82,400 hours before the data was released. The analyst said the strong employment data weakened the basis for the Fed to cut interest rates and forced the market to re-price the possibility of tightening policies rather than changing Bitcoin's long-term investment logic.

Technical Analysis: Focus on US$82,500

Bitcoin's daily relative strength index (RSI) was 66.28, below the overbought threshold of 70. The RSI rose above 70 during the rally, but fell back as prices struggled below resistance, indicating that the momentum was cooling.

The Aroon indicator provides a more positive signal. Aroon Up read 85.71%, while Aroon Down read 7.14%, indicating that despite the correction, recent highs are still more influential than recent lows.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to trade above the Supertrend line of US$78,190. As long as prices remain above this level, the indicator remains bullish, making the US$78,000 - 78,200 area the first key technical support area. The Chaikin Flow of Funds (CMF) reading on the 4-hour chart also was 0.19, above the zero axis, indicating net buying pressure during the measurement period, but this does not rule out the possibility of testing support again in the short term.

A close above US$82,504 will clear immediate resistance and weaken the bearish rejection pattern. Reuters technical analysis pointed out that broader May resistance is around $82,793, which could expose the $90,000 target once a breakthrough is confirmed, followed by a 2026 peak of around $97,867.

If we cannot hold Supertrend for 4 hours, attention will turn to approximately $77,000. Below the area, the next visible support level is around $75,700 and $71,800.

Liquidation heat chart shows two-way pressure

CoinGlass's one-week liquidation heat chart shows a high concentration of leveraged positions around $80,000. Another large liquidity band appears between approximately $81,800 and $82,300, placing potential short liquidations directly below the daily resistance zone.

A breakthrough of $80,000 may push prices towards this upper cluster, although the heat map hierarchy identifies estimated clearing concentrations rather than guaranteed price targets. On the downside side, the strongest pool recently appeared around $78,000, with additional ones concentrated between $76,000 and $77,000. Losing $78,000 of support could expose leveraged long positions and accelerate the decline towards lower liquidity bands.

The location of these clusters places Bitcoin between competing clearing areas. If either side gives in, the $78,000 support level and the $82,000 resistance level could trigger more drastic swings.

Analysts warn of possible "bull market traps"

Trader Gerla said Bitcoin's structure has improved, but warned that during the current cycle, momentum will repeatedly reverse whenever the daily RSI enters overbought territory. He pointed out that every time Bitcoin pushes the RSI into an overbought area, there has been a major correction, which has happened three times.

Gerla identified $82,000 - 84,000 as a failure area for the bearish structure. According to the analyst, a strong closing above the range, supported by high trading volume, would reduce the risk that the latest rally would be a "bull trap." Before such a breakthrough occurs, analysts believe there is a risk of another rejection, which could force leveraged buyers out of the market and generate a larger pullback.

Next, U.S. inflation data will become the main test. The August consumer price index (CPI) will be released on September 11, five days before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. A higher reading could strengthen expectations for a rate hike, while weaker inflation data could reduce the likelihood and provide Bitcoin with the opportunity to challenge the $82,500 again.