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FollowingMorgan Stanley predicts: Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to contribute approximately US$14 billion to fourth-quarter revenue.
On the eve of Apple's September 9 new product launch conference, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring predicts that Apple's first foldable iPhone may add approximately US$14 billion to the company's fourth-quarter revenue.
Summary of core views
- Sales and revenue expectations: Morgan Stanley expects that this folding-screen iPhone will produce 7 million to 8 million units in the second half of 2026, contributing approximately US$14 billion to fourth-quarter revenue.
- Price trend: Affected by rising storage costs, the price increase of Pro series models is expected to exceed US$200 year-on-year, which will be the most extensive price increase for Apple's similar iPhone products in history.
- First appearance after leadership change: The September 9 keynote speech will be the first major product launch led by new CEO John Ternus since taking office.
Morgan Stanley's revenue forecast analysis of folding-screen iPhone
As the bank's director of U.S. technology hardware equity research, Wooding described the device as the biggest change in the iPhone shape since the introduction of the iPhone X in 2017. He expects Apple to produce 7 million to 8 million units of the device in the second half of 2026 and reach production of up to 20 million units in the first full product cycle. According to the research report, the delivery time is expected to begin in October or early November.
The bank predicts that early demand is strong but supply is tight, and this imbalance between supply and demand could lead to delivery times well beyond the opening weekend and into the entire holiday quarter. Wood maintains an "overweight" rating on the stock with a target price of $360. The stock closed Wednesday at $324, about 10% below the target price.
iPhone 18 Pro pricing and storage cost pressures
As NAND flash memory and DRAM memory prices rise, the annual price increase of Pro series models is expected to exceed $200. Wooding pointed out that this is the most extensive price increase for a similar iPhone product in Apple's history. The key hardware upgrade for the iPhone 18 Pro may be a shift to TSMC's 2-nanometer manufacturing process, which aims to increase the speed at which device-side artificial intelligence works. Wood wrote that Apple currently appears to be more focused on locking in supply of key components rather than finding buyers. In the short term, memory supply bottlenecks may still restrict production capacity expansion.
Woodin also reminded investors that Apple's share price usually rebounds before the press conference and falls back on the day of the press conference. This pattern makes trading results dependent on subsequent performance after the press conference. He said sustained stock price growth will depend on subsequent revisions to earnings estimates.
Apple's September 9 launch conference under John Tenus
This keynote speech will be John Tenus's first major product release since taking over the CEO's scepter from Tim Cook on September 1. Tenus had previously been in charge of the hardware engineering department.
Other analysts estimate that the folding-screen device could sell for between $2,300 and $2,500, much higher than anything in the current standard iPhone line. It is rumored that the device will carry the "Ultra" or "Fold" naming logo. For years, Apple has not entered the folding screen market, while Samsung has established dominance of the category around its Galaxy Fold line, allowing Cupertino's company to allow competitors to bear early engineering costs.
As of September 2, Apple's share price has risen nearly 20% since 2026. The keynote speech on September 9 kicked off what analysts expected to be the largest wave of new device launches for Apple in years.
